In the Western Conference Finals, the Minnesota Timberwolves and Dallas Mavericks will compete for a spot in the NBA Finals. Keep reading for previews and predictions for this series. Also, be sure to check out our NBA Playoff His Betting Guide, which serves as your hub for all postseason His betting content.
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Series Preview
This will be Luka Doncic's second trip to the Western Conference Finals in three years.
This time, he must overcome the NBA's best defense to reach the NBA Finals for the first time in his career.
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This is the second time in franchise history that Minnesota has advanced to the conference finals, and the first time since 2004. A win would qualify the franchise for the first time since it entered the league in 1989 to qualify for the NBA Finals.
Currently, betting markets believe that Anthony Edwards and the Timberwolves will represent the Western Conference in the NBA Finals.
When the University of Minnesota defeated Denver on Sunday night, the first series price on the market had the Timberwolves as the -150 favorite to win the series over the Mavericks. In just over 30 minutes, the price went up to -190 at multiple shops. In Dallas, buybacks took place at +160, and the market appears to have settled at -170 in Minnesota.
It's no surprise that the market is rallying around the Timberwolves. This is a team that could oust the defending champions and compete well against the Mavericks.
Dallas is a team built around star Luka Doncic, and they operate in isolation on offense. During the regular season, the Mavericks were seventh in isolation frequency (10.5%) and tied for first in points per possession on isolated possessions (1.05). Doncic was fifth in individual isolation frequency (23.3%) and Dallas averaged 1.09 points per possession on isolations. Kyrie Irving ranks sixth in frequency (19.9%), and the Mavericks score 1.08 points per possession on these plays.
It's no secret that both are looking for mismatches, as that is their characteristic. They are in the Western Conference Finals. The problem is, the Timberwolves might be the antidote to that poison.
Minnesota has elite individual defenders. That's why the Timberwolves allowed the second fewest points per possession in isolation (0.86) during the regular season. Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels are elite wing defenders with size. Mike Conley is small, but he is smart on defense. Doncic and Irving can target either Karl-Anthony Towns or Rudy Gobert, but their size and length make them difficult to shoot even in isolated situations.
Oklahoma City was a team that ranked first in isolation defense with 0.84 points per possession allowed, and did a great job against both Doncic and Irving. His two Mavericks stars will get the job they deserve here.
It also means Dallas' role players will need to step up again.
PJ Washington averaged 17.7 points, 8.3 rebounds and shot 46.9% from 3-point range. Derrick Jones Jr. averaged 12.8 points and 3.2 rebounds on 37.0% 3-point shooting. Derek Lively led the team in plus-minus for the series with a massive +71 through six games.
If Doncic and Irving struggle again, could they rely on their supporting cast to produce a similar series again?
Minnesota is far from perfect. In the three losses against Denver, he averaged just 106.1 points per 100 possessions, resulting in a -17.6 net rating. The Timberwolves' offense has been streaky, to say the least, and the Mavericks' defensive turnaround over the past 32 games has been real.
Dallas is holding its postseason opponents to 110.6 points per 100 possessions. This allowed opponents to only allow 30.0% of their attempts to the rim, and allowed only 57.3% of those shots.
Minnesota is a team that likes to attack in the paint. He has the second-highest rate of rim shot attempts (37.6%) in the postseason, but only shoots 63.6% from inside the restricted area. Dallas will challenge that aspect of the offense.
That being said, it's hard to look away from the Timberwolves right now.
Minnesota has wing defenders in Doncic and Irving. Their ability to guard in one-on-one situations allows other defenders to stay home and challenge lesser shooters like Washington and Jones. They are, again, a deeper team as well.
The betting market rushed to support the favorites on Sunday night, and I would agree with that first move. We can also say that the odds of the Timberwolves winning this series are higher than the implied -170. As with any derivative market related to the series, there is value in betting directly on the price of the series.
Recommendation: Timberwolves win series (-170) | Timberwolves -1.5 games (+130)
