It was as exciting as 2016. Not only did the Oklahoma City Thunder return to the second round for the first time since that season, they also faced the Dallas Mavericks in the postseason for the fourth time in franchise history.
After Oklahoma City dominated the New Orleans Pelicans in the first round, the Dallas Mavericks defeated the Los Angeles Clippers in Game 6 on Friday night to establish this best-of-seven series.
The teams met four times in the regular season, with the Thunder defeating the Mavericks three times, but their only loss came in the only game in which Dallas had Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving fully equipped.
It's going to be even harder to make predictions for this series since there isn't much significant data available from the regular season from a head-to-head standpoint.
However, while there's nothing to do in an 82-game marathon, there's no shortage of storylines in this seven-game sprint.
Star power in a star-driven league
They say the NBA is a star-driven league, and the best stars are expected to do more, especially in the playoffs. There will be no shortage of headliners for the second series of Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luka Doncic are two of the best players in the league, as evidenced by their holding two of the top three spots in NBA Most Valuable Player voting this season. This is Gilgeous-Alexander's second consecutive top-five finish.
Neither player felt like they had their fastballs in their respective openers, but each plans to play better in Game 2.
Dallas has primarily played close games in one form or another all season, especially in the postseason thus far. But it's easy to predict that the series between the two squads will be tense. Between these two teams' previous playoff appearances, only four of the 10 first-round games have been decided by 10 points or less. Things will certainly change come Tuesday.
With every possession and pass, everything becomes more important. Buckets will be harder to get, games will be harder to close, and great performances will be required.
Which star will shine the brightest in this fiercely competitive series? The answer will determine the outcome of this series.
Gilgeous-Alexander plans to find more offensive success in the second round after facing Herb Jones in the last series, but the Mavericks still have star players like Derrick Jones Jr. could be placed. Doncic, on the other hand, will likely spend a lot of time with Lou Dort, whom the NBA superstar called a top-three defender in the league, but Dort is likely to have a lot of trouble with Doncic due to Brandon Ingram's low scoring in the first round. I have no intention of limiting it. There's no greater threat to give the bucket getter a speed bump.
pick and roll punishment
While Oklahoma City boasts a top-5 offense and a top-5 defense, the Dallas Mavericks have a counter to the Thunder's defense that they can use against almost any team.
When you have handlers like Doncic and Irving, you obviously get a lot of attention. With perimeter defenders scrambling to get past screens, the big man manning the rollers will obviously need to shadow towards the on-ball guard to limit these prolific scorers. This puts players in the middle in a precarious position and could be a step behind on the rollers, and the Mavericks have the playmakers to make them pay.
Chet Holmgren uses his timing and length to ensure he gets blocks from behind, while Daniel Gafford and Derek Lively II could easily generate points.
As great as Lou Dort was in the Thunder's first round series, some lazy screens by the Pelicans only served to exacerbate the problem for New Orleans. I have no concerns about Dort's ability to break through a brick wall, but it will be a little harder. Doncic ranks in the 93rd percentile in pick-and-rolls, while Irving ranks in the 82nd percentile. This is food for Dallas and a key area of the Thunder's defense.
The background behind Josh Giddy's minutes
It's been an eventful season for Josh Guidy. He also experienced some of his worst basketball at times as he adjusted to his new role.
But the 21-year-old has been on fire since March 1, playing his best basketball in that span, including hitting a career-high 69 percent at the rim and attacking offensively. Unleash even more games. Now, the former No. 6 overall pick is back in form, helping lead the Thunder to 57 wins and a clean sweep of the first-round series against the Pelicans, headlining two of the four wins.
Guidi has played his best basketball in big games so far in his young career, but this Mavericks series presents a different element. With so many scoring threats across the board, defending the Thunder becomes a deadly proposition for opposing teams.
In the third meeting between these two teams, Guidi only played 22 minutes for the Thunder, but that had little to do with his performance and more to do with Jason Kidd. The Mavericks' bench coach opted to make a second-half adjustment that featured leaving Guidi open at corner after the break, despite the guard's solid performance in the first half.
For opposing coaches, there's no better answer than to reposition Guidi as a corner shooter, cramp some of the driving and cutting lanes, and tip the cap when the third-year guard hits the net with a triple. This could get Guidi off the floor quickly and get Cason Wallace, who can defend and shoot at a higher clip than Guidi, but limit a Thunder offense that already struggles on the glass. It will be. Perhaps Kenrich Williams, who didn't see much action in the first round, might be the right answer. The tenacious forward shot nearly 40 percent from beyond the arc and hit the glass.
Or, the Thunder's offense could cruise if Guidi continues to shoot lights out of the gym like he did on Bourbon Street. Regardless of which way things go, this is going to be a huge storyline for both sides. Even if you're playing solid, you still have shots. Guidi will have to work to stay on the floor.
Consistency of co-stars
Irving has proven to hit tough shots when it matters, including in the NBA Finals. Jaylen Williams played his first NBA playoffs better than anyone expected, but things are far from easy in the second round.
While Williams is expected to continue to provide scoring for Oklahoma City, Irving has done a great job of setting the tone for the Mavericks throughout the first round series.
Irving has a reliable edge in experience and production, but Williams is no slouch either, regardless of his lifelong resume. This season, the Santa Clara product has been one of the best final frame scorers in the NBA, consistently hitting tough mid-range shots, and is expected to be an All-Star in this league in the future.
Both sides will strive to limit the top names on the series' playbill, but which co-star will be able to consistently take over the game?
Hunting discrepancy
Everyone will point to the lack of size and double-barrel big man that Jason Kidd can deploy, but the Thunder can generate an advantage from that. It will be difficult for the Mavericks to keep up with Holmgren on the perimeter, who can knock down triples, dominate as a screener and put the ball on the deck himself.
Doncic will be in nearly all the action, but while his defense has improved this season, getting his superstar in foul trouble limits his effort on that end of the floor. It will be put away. Gilgeous-Alexander and Jaylen Williams need good length and size to match their ability to get past defenders and use gear shifts to get to the rim.
The Thunder are in a position to switch everything up defensively, with capable defenders at every position in most of their lineups. On the offensive side, continued cut and screen action could help select targets for Oklahoma City.
Free player restrictions
Doncic and Irving can name stat lines against any defense, but the Mavericks don't have any other offensive creators. For their complementary players to get going, they need the open eyes generated from the attention devoted to the Mavs' star.
PJ Washington is an off-ball threat, Gafford and Lively II are ready to lob, Tim Hardaway Jr. can spark from beyond the arc when healthy, and it's all about them. It comes from an open look for comfort.
Oklahoma City will have to stick with off-ball players and hurt superstars to keep the Mavericks from reaching their full potential.
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