The difference between the perception of the stock market in October 2023 and the perception of the stock market today is strikingly significant. At the time, almost everyone believed that a recession was likely and that the stock market was heading for a major decline.
Fast forward to today, things are better than most expected, consumer spending is strong, the Fed is considering rate cuts, employment remains strong, and (with rising expectations based on economic growth) many different sectors It looks like there's more good news to come. AI), along with the overall stock market, several major stocks hit new all-time highs.
As I noted last week, Bank of America announced that it predicts the secular bull market could last until 2033. And I recently read an article suggesting how investors should position themselves on the long side for the next 40 years. And former Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher publicly gave the economy an A+ rating on CNBC last week.
Yes, certainly. A catastrophe has been averted and there will be blue skies from now on. Or is it?
This actually reminds me of a three-part article series I wrote in 2022 titled “What if the recession continues and no one shows up?”
We didn't expect the market to fall as much as it did in 2022, but it looks like we're headed for the ideal low end of this secular bull market, just north of the 5000SPX that we outlined a few years ago.
However, I still believe we can head towards a big peak in 2024. Also, read my three-part series for my take on this issue.
So I'd like to keep this week's message very short and outline my views for next week.
Although we didn't get the pullback we were hoping for when we shared our short-term SPX view in our last published article, it appears that the market may be on a more direct path to 5000SPX.
I would like to note that this is not the typical path we usually see, as standard expectations would result in setbacks as outlined in our previous published article on this issue.
So, assuming the market is trying to push us into the 5000+ region in a more direct way, next week's support will be in the 4800-4835SPX region.
As long as it stays above that support, my next upside target is the 4955-4997SPX region and I see more confluence in the 4955-4960SPX region.
Once the next bull market completes, I expect another pullback towards the 4800SPX region. If this holds, it could point to the 5000SPX region in the coming months, which could give it a major market top. A strong reversal.
Alternatively, support ending at any point before 5000SPX opens the door to a bigger pullback that I originally wanted to see, heading towards the 4350-4500SPX region before making a final attempt at the 5000+ region. It will be. later this year.
