It's hard to think of a less popular stock than Boeing Co. (BA) during the 2023 Q4 earnings season. The Boeing Company (NYSE:) is scheduled to release calendar 2023 fourth-quarter financial results before the opening bell on Wednesday. , January 31, 24. Even if the EPS estimate loss ($0.78) and revenue estimate of $21.1 billion are lower, many are due to conference calls and order cancellations (if any), and he expects his initial cash flow to recover from 25 to 26. A lot depends on whether you do it or not. The production story remains the same.
Let's take a look at Boeing's EPS and estimate revisions.
Revenue estimates
Revenue estimates
Personally, I think BA's profit forecast is meaningless here given its 2023 loss. Although 2024 EPS estimates are still expected to be positive, 2024 EPS estimates have lost more than half of their value over the past 12 to 14 months.
Also worth noting are BA's 24-26 earnings estimates and revisions. This change will give us an idea of the extent of BA aircraft order cancellations and whether headlines and reports are far more dire than reality. situation.
Note that even after the Alaska Airlines (NYSE:) debacle and news coverage, 2024 revenue forecasts have remained in the 100ml range for the past four months, while 2025 revenue forecasts have increased slightly .
Given this data, there is some small consolation.
Boeing Summary/Conclusion:
The rise in BA stock from about $180 on Nov. 1 to the end of $260 in 2023 was spectacular, with subsequent door splashes on Alaska Airlines flights and other in-flight incidents causing investors to thought as follows. Sunday he lost the Detroit Lions after the NFC Championship, just as his fans lamented.
The stock appears to have plenty of support in the $200 weekly moving average area, but that average is trending downwards, making it look volatile. How does it compare to the 200-week moving average? Headlines and management commentary matter a lot.
Boeing's undeniable strength lies in its competitiveness and the oligopolistic nature of the aircraft manufacturing industry. Only three companies have the manufacturing capacity for BA to produce 50 planes a month: Airbus and Chinese competitor COMAC, but COMAC is a viable alternative to either Boeing or Airbus. I don't know if it is.
Another positive for BA's outlook is that, despite the latest news, Boeing's bonds have not shown any duress or unusual trading pressure as of this week, according to a trusted bond management source.
According to street consensus, Boeing will always be talking about cash flow in 2025-26, and BA's goal is to produce 50 planes per month by 2025, according to Q3 2023 conference call notes. The goal was to get production back on track. So, the first thing to look at is to see if there are any significant changes to tomorrow's production schedule. Let's see if the 25-26 earnings estimates change after tomorrow's earnings release.
It's hard to imagine a worse media or sentiment environment for Boeing to announce earnings, as Tesla (NASDAQ:) did last week. Therefore, in terms of calculations, it comes down to how much of an endless stream of bad news is discounted to the stock price, versus how much the stock price is discounted. The airline may or may cancel forwarding orders to the airline.
The fair value of Morningstar, Inc. (NASDAQ:) stock is $232, and the manufacturing defect has been quantified to be between $1 and $32 per share, resulting in a new fair value of $200. It will trade in dollars, or in the worst case scenario, today's stock prices. incident scenario.
The client has a 1.5% to 1.6% position in the stock, which is likely to be held until earnings are confirmed tomorrow morning and research is scrutinized.
Boeing is a “long game” stock, especially in a market driven by mega-cap stocks and luxury goods. It's hard to buy a stock like this ahead of earnings, given the unknowns and what else may be disclosed.
Clients hold a long-term 1.5% position in the stock, which they will hold until at least the confirmation and redemption of Q4 2023 results.
This is not advice or recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results. Investments may involve loss of principal. Earnings announcements can cause large fluctuations, both up and down, in stock prices, so be careful when purchasing stocks ahead of earnings. Readers should gauge their appetite for market volatility and adjust their portfolios accordingly.
