(TNS) — Even if you've heard it before, there's another reason to be thankful. That means the local job market is crushing the market again.
Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas, added a seasonally adjusted 19,500 jobs in October, the largest monthly increase since May, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
When you take a longer view, the numbers are even more impressive. In the 12 months ending in October, D-FW added 255,000 jobs. This is far above historical pace and above last year's pace as the economy was recovering from the pandemic.
In the decade before the coronavirus outbreak, North Texas added an average of 92,500 jobs a year. This means job growth this year is more than 2.5 times faster than normal trends.
“Something is booming in D-FW,” said Adam Perdue, an economist at Texas A&M University's Texas Real Estate Research Center. “Everything is still in great condition.”
In Dallas-Fort Worth, total employment in October hit a record high of nearly 4.19 million. Employment in the region increased 6.5% over the past 12 months, nearly double the U.S. job growth rate of 3.4% and the highest among the most populous metropolises.
Perdue said D-FW's primary industries are still growing, with many industries accelerating their hiring pace. In the state jobs report released Friday, Texas added employers in every category except financial services, which lost 700 jobs statewide.
The financial recession was not surprising given the steady rise in interest rates and the slowdown in the housing market. But in D-FW, the financial sector added 3,200 jobs in October, and employment numbers rose by nearly 22,000 (6.2%) last year.
Perdue said the strong job growth is contrary to expectations that the economy is heading into a recession because it suggests both increased production and increased consumption.
What concerns him more is the low unemployment rate, which was 3.4% for Democrats-FW in October, down from 4.2% a year ago.
“We're growing as fast as we can, so we're running out of people to hire,” Perdue said.
This is the largest job increase D-FW has recorded in the 12 months ending in October. This total surpassed last year's record of 214,000 job gains, driven largely by the recovery from the pandemic. The fastest growing period in the previous two years was in 1997.
“The numbers are just off the charts. We're basically doubling the production we had before,” said Tom, chief analytics officer at Dallas-based ThinkWhy, a software services company focused on employment and payroll. Jay Denton said.
One of the keys is that there is active population movement within the country. D-FW has been a leader in attracting workers and employers from expensive areas like California, New York, and Illinois.
Many people came here during the pandemic, but that flow was expected to slow as other parts of the country recover and increased remote work becomes more permanent. If people were able to work anywhere, the theory is that Dallas and other metropolitan areas would become less attractive, especially where housing prices are rising rapidly.
That hasn't happened. “Dallas still attracts a lot of people who move here to work for local businesses,” Denton said. “They are also moving here to work remotely for companies outside of Texas.”
Due to lags in migration data, it will take some time for this year's pattern to become clear. But a key indicator, the size of the civilian workforce, suggests that D-FW continues to attract many new entrants.
Over the past 12 months, the region has grown its workforce by more than 158,000 people, including people working and looking for work. The Dallas-Plano-Irving metro area saw its labor force grow by nearly 4.2%, significantly outpacing the 2.2% increase in Texas and the 1.8% increase in the United States.
“You can't get [growth] Without the workforce,” Denton said. “There are jobs available, but you can't fill them if you don't have the talent.”
The talent pipeline is one of the great strengths of the Dallas job market. Denton said many regions in the Northeast, Midwest and California are not even matching the U.S. labor force growth rate.
Laila Athani, senior business economist at the Dallas Fed, said the number of announced corporate moves to North Texas has decreased compared to last year, but the trend remains significant.
“People and businesses are still moving, but not at the same rate as in 2021,” Asani said.
Another expert said the threat of an economic downturn may be forcing some companies to act early.
“I feel like when you hear about any kind of recession, people start coming in even faster,” said Thomas Vick, Dallas-Fort Worth regional director for staffing firm Robert Half. “Employers are still hiring. And we're seeing an influx of people and businesses into D-FW.”
Unemployment rates are not far from historic lows, especially in certain industries, adding to the pressure on employers looking to expand.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. financial industry unemployment rate was 1.5% in October, and the insurance industry unemployment rate was 1.1%. The unemployment rate for occupations that include oil and gas extraction, a critical sector of Texas' economy, was 0.8% in October, down from 10% a year ago.
Such low unemployment rates, combined with strong employment growth, give workers a decisive advantage in the current labor market, Vick said.
However, several large-scale, high-profile job cuts were announced this month, including Facebook's parent company Meta cutting more than 11,000 jobs and Amazon cutting about 10,000 jobs. These don't reflect broader trends, Vick said. “The big companies make the headlines, but they're in the minority. Most companies are still hiring.”
More applicants may come to the court, at least from those big tech companies. However, they do not have the power to hire workers at discounted prices.
“The market remains talent-driven, and candidates have an advantage, especially in D-FW,” Vick said.
©2022 Dallas Morning News. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.
