Freeport, Maine — Editor's note: The attached video was originally published on January 17, 2024.
Buying and selling real estate on the Maine coast has long been about communicating the appeal of coastal living. We are also increasingly equipping our clients with up-to-date flood zone maps, sea level rise projections, available insurance, and more.
These and other tools can provide coastal homebuyers with critical information to calculate the risks and rewards of living literally on the brink in an era of climate-change-fueled storms.
With this new reality in mind, more than 100 real estate professionals packed into a Freeport hotel conference room on the last day of January for a presentation dubbed “Living on the Edge.”
Periodic storms and floods have always been a part of life on the coast of Maine. But for some in the real estate industry, the effects of climate change may have seemed abstract and distant.
However, the situation changed with historic flooding caused by wind and rain storms on December 18th, and in January, when a series of record-breaking storms hit and inundated the coast. These buildings, along with many others, have dispelled the notion that waterfront homes are not at risk simply because they have been standing for over 100 years.
Some takeaways from the presentation:
Coastal property owners should prepare for sea level rise now. Depending on future global emissions, tide levels could rise an average of 1.5 feet by 2050 and 3.9 feet by 2100, according to the Maine Climate Council.
Peter Slovinski, a marine geologist with the Maine Geological Survey, said the trend is already exacerbating the effects of storm surge and storm surge. The January 13th storm provided an example of this. Storm surge during Portland's monthly 11.2-foot storm surge pushed water levels to a record 14.57 feet.
Slovinksi said Maine has five response options. Property owners on higher ground may not be able to do anything. Avoiding new development in high-risk areas is a secondary consideration.
Maintaining undeveloped vegetated buffer zones to provide space for future water levels and raising or setting back structures beyond minimum requirements are ways to adapt and adapt. Dune restoration and other natural solutions can help protect developed uplands, but are not always effective against the worst storms.
Slovinski said as a last resort, the building could be relocated, but in some cases it would have to be demolished.
He showed slides of Higgins Beach in Scarborough, when the historic Silver Sands Hotel stood on the beach between the ocean and Bayview Avenue. The hotel suffered severe damage and was demolished after the winter storm of 1978.
Photos from last month show an empty hotel lot and a rock seawall now running where the dunes used to be.
Credit: Maine Monitor / Provided by: Maine Geological Survey
Buildings too close to rising seas may not survive. The historic Silver Sands Hotel was perched on top of the sand dunes at Scarborough's Higgins Beach.
Portland property owners also have difficult decisions to make. The city is studying zoning changes aimed at making buildings and infrastructure more resilient.
Current floodplain maps use historical data and do not take sea level rise into account. Troy Moon, the city's sustainability director, displayed a map of Portland's downtown peninsula, including areas that would be submerged in a 100-year flood.
They primarily covered previously reclaimed land around the harbor's piers, Bayside and Back Cove.
But when the state plugged in a new computer model using the projected 3.9 feet of sea level rise, it produced an alarming map. Much of Bayside, adjacent to Interstate 295, was flooded, as was a large portion of Commercial Street.
It's a glimpse of the future.
Homebuyers can learn how vulnerable their property is to storm damage by checking federal flood hazard maps. His revised FEMA map for York and Cumberland counties will be released this summer, showing whether mandatory flood insurance is required for homes with federally backed or insured mortgages. Masu. Regular homeowners insurance does not cover flooding.
Credit: Map composite provided by Maine Monitor / City of Portland
Current FEMA flood maps based on historical flood levels.
But don't expect your home to be safe from flooding just because it's outside a planned flood zone, James Nadeau told the group. Nadeau, a Portland real estate agent and land surveyor, noted that 40 percent of flood claims in the past five years have come from homes outside of designated special flood hazard areas.
Also, don't rely too much on the Maine property disclosure forms that sellers fill out, Nadeau said. He doesn't mention flooding other than asking if the house has flood insurance, which gives a false sense of security. It also provides an optional “unknown” checkbox.
Nadeau said homebuyers can do part of their own due diligence by entering a property's address on the Climate Check website, which estimates storm, flood and other weather risks based on national projections for 2050. He suggested that it could be done.
“We can't turn away from this”
Julia Bassett Schwerin could not have predicted the timing of these extreme weather events.
Mr. Schwerin, a certified green and smart home broker in Cape Elizabeth, prepares the fourth annual sustainability issues class, “Living on the Edge,” for agents, lenders, insurance companies, builders and other professionals. I started it a few months ago. She co-chairs the Sustainability Advisory Group, a committee within the Greater Portland Board of Realtors. Her past courses have covered topics such as weatherization, electrification, and building energy codes.
Schwerin said he had been thinking about a workshop for a long time about the future of flooding in the Casco Bay area and its impact on waterfront properties. She didn't want to scare people, but “she felt now was the time,” she said.
Still, Schwerin came a day after Gov. Janet Mills made storm preparedness a highlight of her State of the Union address, and as did President Biden, as Maines continues to clean up from severe storm damage. I couldn't have predicted that a course like this would be held in such a world. Approves federal disaster assistance for 10 Maine counties.
As host, Schwerin also used the forum to draw connections between threats to Maine's tourism and coastal housing markets and the burning of fossil fuels, the root cause of climate change.
“I took (the storm) as a positive wake-up call for people,” she said. “We can't turn a blind eye to this. Everything we're doing is causing this.”
Class participants heard from five experts on topics including sea level forecasting, government flood insurance, revised flood maps, impacts on property values, and adapting to future rising water levels and intensifying storms. I heard. (See slide presentation.)
Landlocked owners also at risk
The most recent damage was caused by coastal storms. But as December's heavy rains demonstrated inland, rising rivers and streams can wreak havoc in most parts of Maine. Cale Pickford, an agent with Allen Insurance & Financial, said these events have put a renewed focus on the value of insurance coverage.
Homeowners can take steps to lower their risk, he said. Make sure your gutters are clear of obstructions to handle heavy rain. Install water and freeze alarms to warn of potential catastrophic flooding.
Consider installing a whole-house generator to keep your system running in the event of a power outage. But as economic losses mount, flood insurance rates will rise and underwriting guidelines in the private flood insurance market will tighten, Pickford said.
“When purchasing a new home, knowing whether the property is insured is just as important as location,” he said.
A property owner who has flood insurance may find that it does not cover the contents of the building or that the standards for proving water damage are higher than the owner expected. there is.
Does this mean that property values are more likely to decline in flood zones or areas with a history of flooding? Maybe, but maybe not, says United in Scarborough. said Robert Lynch, senior vice president and lead appraiser at Valuation Group.
As an exercise, Lynch investigated 14 sales over the past three years at Camp Ellis in Saco, a coastal community long prone to flooding. He noted that there were eight sales outside of current FEMA-mapped flood zones, with a median sales price of $712,000. Six homes within the flood zone sold for a median price of $593,750. That's about a 17% difference.
But this group data analysis is flawed, Lynch explained. It's a small sample. And it doesn't take into account things like the age, condition, or size of the home.
Calculating risk and reward
Still, there is evidence that the impact of climate change on housing values is becoming part of the conversation.
One example is a recent blog from Rockland-based Cates Real Estate.
“January came like a dragon,” it began, listing images of unprecedented storm damage, homes on flooded roads, and links to state aid pages. One of the brokers, Kelly Lee Hall of Scarborough, posted a YouTube video showing waves crashing against homes in Higgins Beach.
In a late January article on home prices, a Cape Elizabeth real estate agent said he was interested in how coastal flooding would affect property values in his town and other coastal areas.
“The Cape has always been a desirable area,” Mary Libby told the Bangor Daily News. She gets calls from clients on the water asking, “What should I do?” ”
The new reality may force some buyers to revise their risk-reward calculations, said Leanne Barschdorf-Nichols, founder of Sustainability Advisory Group.
“It depends on how consumers perceive risk,” she says. “People are going to have to make those decisions on an individual basis.”
Nichols, principal founder of the Keller Williams Realty franchise in Maine, said recent storms have made it imperative for real estate agents and clients to talk openly about the effects of climate change. Told. At the same time, he said he expects the market to adjust with mitigation strategies, such as raising structures higher and building farther from the water.
“Maine people value their waterfront,” she said. “They'll find a way to adapt.”
This article was originally published by The Maine Monitor, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization. For regular coverage from the Monitor, sign up for the free Monitor newsletter here.
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