The Dallas Mavericks meaningfully restructured their roster around Luka Doncic heading into their third consecutive trade deadline. The early return was impressive, with five straight wins (three of which came after the deadline). With one of the easier dates in the league's remaining schedule and a roster finally nearing full size, Dallas should learn what a really good team it is during this stretch run.
But with 28 games remaining, Dallas must also adjust to the team's two new acquisitions. To discuss them further, I asked Josh Robbins, who covers the Washington Wizards. The Athleticand Dave DuFour, one of the hosts of the podcast “The Athletic NBA Show,” spoke to me about who these players really are.
Tim Cato: Josh, it's always funny when schedules fit together like Monday. Dallas' new center Daniel Gafford got an opportunity to play against his old team, the Washington Wizards, almost immediately.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, Gafford was impressive. In the postgame press conference, he talked about relaying the details of every Wizards play to his new teammates. That was his play just a week ago! But it wasn't this basketball version of insider trading that really impressed him. It was his athleticism and athleticism.
Was what Gafford did against the Wizards on Monday — 16 points, 17 rebounds, five blocks — typical of what he's done for the Wizards all season?
Josh Robbins: that? No, I think if Gafford had recorded his 16 points, 17 boards, and 5 blocks in most games, he would still be on the Wizards roster.
That said, a legitimate argument can be made that Gafford has been Washington's best and most consistent player this season. Here's the background people should know about Gaff. The Wizards' perimeter defense has been very bad at holding the ball down for most of this season, so he's had to clean up a lot of other players' messes. Contesting those shots sometimes forced him out of position, reducing his effectiveness as a defensive rebounder.
His defensive rebound rate of 17.4 percent ranks in the 50th percentile among all big men in the NBA, according to Cleaning the Glass, an advanced analytics database that excludes statistics compiled by garbage time and blowouts. has been done. Basically in the middle. In previous seasons, his defensive rebounding was well below average.
So is he a below-average defensive rebounder? Can he be above average? He can be overwhelmed by other big players, and he tends to ball watch instead of boxing.
Cato: That's a good, important point. I've seen some Mavericks fans declare Gafford the team's best rebounder since Tyson Chandler, which is perhaps no surprise given his underwhelming looks in the first two games. . But he wasn't, at least in Washington.
Robbins: I'm interested to see how he progresses in that area. I focus on defensive rebounding because with Doncic and Kyrie Irving, the Mavs don't need Gafford to carry a huge scoring burden. He's going to have to contest shots and rebounds.
But with Luka and Kyrie driving Dallas' offense and drawing a lot of attention from the defense, Gafford should excel as a lob threat and a player who can convert dump-off passes. He has good hands and good jumping ability.
Cato: And even though he missed some touch shots near the rim on Monday, he's definitely made that this season, right? Dunks alone won't lead to him leading the league in field goal percentage.
Robbins: That's true, but dunks are a major part of his repertoire. Of his 217 baskets this season, 101 were dunks, according to NBA tracking data. However, he has made progress with his touch around the basket.
There's one more question I'm looking forward to seeing him answer in Dallas. It's about how good a rim protector he is. Gafford blocks shots at a high rate, but protecting the rim also means stopping those shots and getting into the paint in the first place, like Rudy Gobert and Victor Wembaneyama.
I thought it was interesting that Gafford's former teammates attacked the rim relentlessly during Monday's game. Gafford is a good shot blocker, but he's not an elite rim protector. He is, at least not yet.
Cato: Yes, Monday's game changed when Dallas started running a switching defense with Maxi Kleber at center instead of Gafford. Gafford's offensive rebounding would be extremely valuable against smaller teams like Oklahoma City and Golden State. But even if other matchups turn out to be unfavorable for him, Dallas now has the luxury of options.
Daniel Gafford tries to block a shot by former teammate Deni Avdija on Monday night. (Photo by Glenn James/NBAE, Getty Images)
One more thing: Before Monday's game, you spoke with Kyle Kuzma and talked about how he almost joined Dallas at the last minute. I also spoke with league officials last week and they later told me what Kuzma told you. He didn't want to come to Dallas, which was the main reason his contract fell through. What did you think about those comments?
Robbins: Most of all, I was surprised that Kuzma wanted to stay with the Wizards rather than join the Mavericks. It's been a tough season in Washington — the team has the worst record in the league — and I would have thought the opportunity to chase a championship with an all-league player like Luka would be appealing. .
But then Kuzma was reminded that he enjoys being the team's top option in Washington, rather than a role player, like when he was part of the supporting cast for LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Kuzma would have been the third option in Dallas.
Cato: Dallas pivoted to acquiring PJ Washington, which had more uncertainty and therefore much more appeal.
The former Charlotte Hornets forward is a wing-sized athlete with a skill set similar to larger players. He was projected as an undrafted shooter, making 46.1 percent of his corner threes in his first two seasons, but lost his touch over the next three years (31.5 percent from those spots). . He has the tools to be a high-level defender, and the highlight tape might lead you to believe he is. However, the influence was not consistently present.
Dave, let me switch this conversation to you. How about a quick attempt to explain what makes Washington such a complex player? As this pseudo-big, pseudo-wing athlete who may or may not fit perfectly next to Doncic? I'm still struggling to describe him accurately.
Dave Dufour: I think you did a great job of explaining an archetype that we don't fully understand yet. I've been playing with the idea of a “combo big” or “combo wing” against a tweener type like Washington.There are combo guards all over the league, but Washington is the type of player who can stretch the floor, guard the perimeter and play above the rim. and It doesn't seem so easy to categorize the defense around the basket. Denver's Aaron Gordon is currently the gold standard for these types of role players.
Cato: It seems like every title contender needs Gordon. Or Draymond Green, Pascal Siakam, Kuzma, to name a few other recent champions. (As discussed above, who was actually Dallas' priority target?)
That leads to a broader conversation about Dallas' roster and what's missing from it, but let's hold off on that for a moment. That's because Washington hasn't done enough at this point to prove he's a combo big of that quality.
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What am I missing? Let's start with his defense. He hasn't been very good in Charlotte this season, but he's been better in the past with the Hornets. Does Washington look to you more as a point-of-attack defender or a help-side player?
Dufour: He definitely doesn't want to draft his primary playmaker at the top, but he can pull the switch if needed. Ideally, he would be on the backline, rotating and helping the center clean around the basket. Given his athleticism and length, he should be an even more solid rim protector than he has been in recent seasons.
Cato: At least Dallas hopes so! Rim protection is more than just athleticism and wingspan, and Washington is certainly capable enough to be a good weak-side deterrent. There's a lot of instinctual stuff involved, and it's difficult to improve on that.
However, Washington had a combined block percentage of 3.7 in his second and third seasons. This season, that puts him on par with Scottie Barnes (3.6), Jarrett Allen (3.4), and Derrick White (3.3). Last season, he held opponents to less than 60 percent shooting when contesting shots within six feet of the rim.
Maybe he'd be a better fit in Dallas. Could his instability this season be explained by the Hornets' situation?
Dufour: Looking at Charlotte's situation, I don't have much confidence. He was a more impactful player in his last decent season in 2021-22, but he hasn't been the same since the organization fired James Borrego two summers ago.
Cato: Offensively, I see him as a cleaner fit with one big question: shooting. But I don't think you can diagnose whether looking better will lead to more production, whether his mechanics can be tweaked, or whether this is just who he is just by looking in from the outside. right?
Dufour: He's a so-so to good shooter and I think he'll end up getting some good looks. Again, comparing him to Aaron Gordon, moving to a better team with better players should make his life easier. From the second or third option he moves on to the fourth or fifth option there is a huge difference in difficulty. A wide-open catch-and-shoot 3-second shot diet should lead to better results. It will be as much about his desire to shoot as his ability to convert.
Cato: In the NBA, role players are increasingly required not only to have a catch-and-shoot success rate, but also to be effective off the bounce. But modern offenses still can only survive with one player who doesn't shoot most of the time, and Dallas is committed to playing a lot of minutes with a center that doesn't shoot. Washington needs to make shots while providing value as a cutter and closeout attacker.
Things may not come together in Dallas the same way they did in Charlotte. But Washington is 25 years old and has two more seasons left on his contract. When the trade happened, I wrote that what I liked most about this move was that Dallas could just trade him again if the team realized the fit wasn't quite the right fit. Is that correct?
Dufour: It's a near perfect scenario for the Mavs. If that goes well, they'll have a starter who can make money off the bench for the next few seasons. If that doesn't work out, he's on an incredibly team-friendly contract, but he'll be worth less in the $14-$15 million range over the next two years, making him a perfect candidate for a trade.
Cato: There are exceptions, but most players have had better seasons next to Doncic. It's hard to see Washington's value diminishing, except when they're the epitome of what every competing team looks at through rose-colored glasses.
But let's say he's good. Do we know how far away from the competition this team really is? What is still missing?
Dufour: Unfortunately, they are still without Nikola Jokic.
Cato: Yeah, just like the other 28 teams. But they have a very different player in Doncic, but also one who is probably the closest to him. I believe that Dallas will somehow find something that the team is still missing this season. And this summer, they will have the ability, and the need, to make their final move.
(Top photo of PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford: Glenn James / NBAE via Getty Images)
