Luka Doncic's future is of paramount importance to the Mavericks. They have no control over how high their draft picks land in four consecutive drafts, except for very limited protection in one year. But what they can control is whether to offer Luka Doncic his next contract. It could either be extended in July 2025 to start the 2026-27 season, or as a contract if he opts out of his player option for the 2026-27 season. .
The former will make everyone breathe a sigh of relief, while the latter will lead to some real soul-searching for the Mavericks. If Luka does not accept a supermax extension, he will become an unrestricted free agent for the first time in the summer of 2026.
Here are the resources the Mavericks used to improve their team before offering him a contract.
- The Mavericks traded their 2027 No. 1 in the P.J. Washington trade. There is limited protection. If they go in the top two picks, the Hornets will only have access to Miami's second-round pick in 2028.
- The Mavericks sent an unprotected 2028 pick to OKC as part of the Daniel Gafford trade.
- The Mavericks sent an unprotected 2029 first-rounder to the Nets as part of the Kyrie Irving trade.
- The Mavericks traded an unprotected 2030 first-round pick to the Spurs this summer as part of their acquisition of Grant Williams.
And for many experts, this is a big talking point that shows how the Mavericks are in potential Brooklyn Nets-level danger. I hope to potentially provide a way to understand why these particular four choices of hers are less at risk than you might think. Only if the Mavericks lose Luka for nothing, like Kevin Durant left the Thunder, could the bottom really collapse. If that happens in 2026, when he has the right to opt out, the Mavericks won't have the top draft pick that comes with being that type of team and will be somewhere between a terrible team and a bad team. You will have to look at the reality of being in.
If everything depends on Luka, is there a chance that Luka can take Durant?
But before that, I need to explain…
What is “Supermax”?
The maximum contract the Mavericks can give Luka is technically known as a Designated Veteran Extension or Designated Veteran Contract, but is most often referred to colloquially as a “supermax.” Players with seven to nine years of service can earn up to 35% instead of up to 30% if they qualify according to certain criteria, making it the “super” portion of the “maximum.” However, even if he meets the criteria, he can only sign with a team that has a rookie max extension contract at 35%. The only exception is if a player is traded after signing a rookie extension but before the contract begins, which has never happened.
That means Luka will face that problem in July 2025. Will he sign a designated 35% extension with the Mavericks? Or, could he opt out of his player option and wait until 2026 to become a free agent, giving him up to 30% of his contract and the contract he can sign with the Mavericks has additional financial benefits? : He'll get an 8% raise, compared to only 5% on other teams.
ESPN ran a segment titled “5-year/$367 million supermax extension expected in 2025.''
However, the 35% supermax will not apply no matter what the salary cap is in 2026-2027. The salary cap for that season will not be officially announced until the end of June 2026. So how did ESPN come up with a five-year, $367 million extension?
In short, this is the number most likely given by Bill Duffy. This is where the extension has the most value. I haven't shared all of my future salary cap estimates, but I've calculated what it would look like if it went up by 5% or the maximum allowable 10%. Typically, the NBA uses 5% as a placeholder estimate. According to the new CBA signed last year, the maximum allowed is 10%. Also, the salary cap always ends in three zeros, so I always round up to the next thousandth.
So, using these two estimates for the 2026-27 salary cap, what's the difference between what Dallas can offer in an extension and what other teams can offer in July 2026? ?
Here are the differences when using a 5% increase:
There is one interesting note to this graphic. Luka would have to opt out of his high player option ($48,967,380) to sign with another team for a lower amount. The difference between the two contracts is that he is worth $116,523,360 for one year.
What difference does it make if the cap increases by 10% each year?
The larger the cap increase, the greater the gap between what the Mavericks can offer and what other teams can offer.The difference is $133,974,040 in one year.
Remove player options
Currently, the final year of each contract is a player option (as it always is for players like Luka). Let's just compare his four years of certainty with a potential contract extension with the Mavericks and his three years of certainty with a potential contract with another team in 2026.
Here is the calculation to calculate the team management year using the 5% increase:
The difference in management years between the two teams is 1 year and $98,100,072
See estimates with up to 10% salary increases
The difference in management years between the two teams is 1 year and $112,791,658
Make up for the year lost on a 5-year contract
Let's do some more calculations. What would Luka do with that lost year if he signs a 35% max contract in 2030?
Using the continued 5% and 10% salary cap increases, we can calculate how much Luka would sign for in any given year.here are the numbers
Luka will sign a five-year, $367,523,380 contract, or a four-year, $233,549,340 contract, followed by a one-year, $92,775,200 (35% of $265,072,000) contract. there is a possibility.
What's the real difference? $41,198,840
Let's check with a 5% raise.
With the cap increase, that difference actually increased to $49,533,010. That's because the current team's 8% salary increase will rise faster than the salary cap. So 2030-31 doesn't mean much.
Use all of this. Luka could earn more than $40 million just by staying with the Mavs compared to the other best options.
4 year comparison
Assuming Luka opts out of 4+1, how does that compare to what he would get if he opts out of 3+1 and signs a 35% contract in year 4?
Even considering that he will likely opt out of his player option in 2030, Luka could still earn around $30 million in extra money just by signing a supermax extension without waiting to sign with another team. I got. The Mavericks have the advantage of being able to secure that money for him 12 months in advance. I predict that we'll get the Stein or Wu bomb, signing Luka to a designated veteran contract extension for up to five years (with a player option at the end) on July 1, 2025, as soon as possible.
So how long will the Mavericks have Luka under control for four years?
- 2026-27
- 2027-28
- 2028-29
- 2029-30
These happen to be four drafts where the Mavericks have no control over potential high-end draft picks. So the Mavericks will be acquiring Luka, or whatever they would receive if he were to force a trade at some point during these seasons.This means they are making a smart bet that Luka will commit to a contract in July 2025 that is worth more than $100 million initially than anyone else could offer after 12 months.
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