Dallas Mavericks vs OKC Thunder Prediction, Odds & Player Props

February 10, 2024. Dallas, Texas, USA. Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) dribbles while Dallas Mavericks guard Josh Green (8) protects him during the first half at American Airlines Center. Required Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

• Dallas Mavericks face Oklahoma City Thunder on Thursday
• NBA on Thursday heavily favors OCK, with Luka Doncic currently ruled out
• Read below for Dallas Mavericks vs. OKC City Thunder predictions, odds, and player props.

The Dallas Mavericks will visit the Oklahoma City Thunder on Thursday night for a 10pm ET tip-off at Paycom Center. We've created Mavs vs. Thunder predictions so you can make an educated bet on the game.

The Thunder opened the game as home favorites with 6.5 points, but with Mavericks superstar Luka Doncic officially out with a strained left hamstring, the Thunder's points skyrocketed to -11.5 points. The over/under total also decreased from his 242.5 points to his 234.5 points.

Dive into our Mavs vs. Thunder predictions as we analyze the odds and determine the best bet (including props) for the game.

Dallas Mavericks vs. OKC Thunder odds

In the Mavericks vs. Thunder odds, Oklahoma City is currently the favorite to win at -600 on the money line, giving them an implied probability of victory of 86%.

The Mavericks defeated the Thunder 146-111 in their last meeting on February 10 in Dallas. However, OKC is looking for revenge at home and is a strong candidate to make that happen.

Odds as of March 14, 2024 at ESPN Sportsbook. Sign up to ESPN Bet and bet on Mavericks vs. Thunder. North Carolina bettors can access his ESPN Bet app for North Carolina State for exclusive offers.

Dallas Mavericks betting analysis

The Mavericks (38 wins, 28 losses) have won four straight and moved into eighth place in the West Division. However, Doncic, who leads the NBA in scoring (34.3 points) and usage rate (36.0%), will be absent. Dallas is just 3-5 without him this season, averaging nearly nine points less per game.

Luka Doncic will not play in tonight's game against OKC.

— Brandon Rahbar (@BrandonRahbar) March 14, 2024

Doncic's absence is a huge blow to the Mavs' offense, which ranks seventh in offensive rating (116.1) but only 21st in defensive rating (116.7). During his recent four-game winning streak, his defense has stepped up, posting a 106.8 defensive rating, tied for third in the NBA. They're going to need that stingy D to continue without an MVP candidate.

Kyrie Irving (25.2 points) will be the clear focal point on offense. In Wednesday's game against the Warriors, he had 23 points and 10 assists while limiting Doncic. Tim Hardaway Jr. (16.0 ppg) is also a threat on the perimeter and will need to carry more scoring duties.

Notable Mavericks stats and trends:

• 35-30 ATS overall, 18-13 ATS on the road
• 0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS as an 8+ point underdog without Doncic
• Without Doncic, the under is 2-0-1, trailing by at least eight points.
• The under is 4-3-1 overall in games Doncic missed.

OKC Thunder betting analysis

The Thunder (45-20) lead the West Division, but their winning streak ended at three with a 121-111 loss at home to the Pacers on Tuesday. OKC will be seeking revenge for their previous loss to Dallas 146-111 on February 10th.

The Thunder used a balanced attack to lead the West 45-20, becoming one of the NBA's biggest surprises. OKC ranks him third in offensive rating (119.0) and fifth in defensive rating (111.3), making him one of only two teams to finish in the top five in both categories.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points) is an odds-on favorite to win NBA MVP and had 30 points and 10 rebounds against Indiana. Rookie Chet Holmgren (16.8 ppg, 7.8 rpg) made a huge impact on both ends. The Thunder lead the NBA in blocks (6.7 per game), steals (8.2) and opponent turnovers forced (15.6). They allow the fourth fewest points in the paint (46.9 points per game).

The latest NBA Rookie of the Year odds have Holmgren (+2500) trailing Spurs favorite Victor Wembaneyama (-5000) by a wide margin. But he at least spent most of the season competing.

Notable Thunder stats and trends:

• ATS 39-25 overall, SU home 26-7
• SU 9-1 in last 10 home games
• The under has 7 wins and 1 loss in 8 games in March.
• 1-4 ATS in last 5 games overall
• 6-0 in last 6 games against Mavericks

Mavs vs. Thunder player props

Doncic's injury has also rattled NBA player props, with some players having higher projections than they did early this morning. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the highest scorer with 30.5 total points, and Chet Holmgren has the highest expected rebounds (9.5 points).

Prop odds for NBA players as of March 14th at Caesars Sportsbook. Raleigh bettors can sign up for Caesars North Carolina.

Some of the Mavs vs. Thunder props we're targeting include Kyrie Irving, who makes over 3.5 threes. Irving has made 3.8 threes per game since joining Dallas and has returned that number in six of his last eight games. The Thunder are shooting the fourth-most threes per game (13.4) in the NBA.

• Pick: Kyrie Irving 3.5 or better on threes (+112)

Another prop bet target is Chet Holmgren, who has over 9.5 rebounds. The rookie has had his third consecutive time he's gotten nine or more boards, and overall he's gotten his five of his last seven. The Mavs are a bottom-10 team in rebounding, so the big man has a chance to clean up again.

• Pick: Chet Holmgren 9.5+ rebounds (+116)

Dallas Mavericks vs. OKC City Thunder Prediction

With Doncic out, I'm rooting for the Thunder to win and cover the spread in a low-scoring game. OKC has a big advantage on defense and on the glass, but their depth shines with SGA leading a more balanced offensive approach.

The Mavs are 0-3 without him this year, 1-2 ATS and trailing by eight points or more, and the under team is 2-0-1 in those games. The Thunder are 9-1 SU in their last 10 home games and will need to be motivated to get revenge after losing by 35 points in their last meeting.

For Mavericks vs. Thunder predictions, we'll take Thunder -10.5 & Under 234.5 points. You can also put this into a parlay for the same game to get positive winning odds. The under is 7-1 in OKC's most recent games, dating back to March 8, and that trend should continue with Doncic's absence.

DAL-OKC Recommendations:

• OKC ATS (-10.5 at BetMGM Best Line)
• Less than 234.5 points (-110)

entertainment
NFL
NHL
NCAAF