of denver nuggets face dallas mavericks Sunday at the American Airlines Center. Tip-off is at 3:30 PM ET.
On Friday, Denver (47-20 SU, 31-35-1 ATS, 25-41-1 O/U) defeated San Antonio 117-106. Nuggets lead the West Division.
Dallas (SU 38-29, ATS 37-30, O/U 33-34) lost to OKC 126-119 on Thursday. The Mavericks are 8th in the West Division rankings.
The Nuggets won the first two games between these teams. In the most recent matchup (December 18), Denver won 130-104. He shot 56.3 percent overall, including 14-of-26 from 3-point range, and scored 60 points in the paint. The Nuggets led by as many as 36 points and never trailed.
Reporting an injury
Nuggets: No injuries.
Mavs: SG josh green (8.5PPG) came out. P.G. Luka Doncic (34.3 PPG, 9.0 RPG, and 9.8 APG) and PG Dante Exum (8.3 PPG) is questionable.
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Denver has won 11 of its last 12 games.
Denver is averaging 114.8 points per game (15th) and shooting 49.6 percent (4th), including 36.9 percent from 3-point range (14th). He made 76.0 percent of his free throw attempts (26th) and averaged 44.1 rebounds per game (11th). The Nuggets also average 29.3 assists (3rd) and 12.6 turnovers (6th) per game.
Denver allows 110.3 points per game (7th) and holds opponents to 46.5 percent (8th) on 36.2 percent shooting from deep (12th) and 42.1 rebounds per game (7th). The Nuggets are averaging 5.5 blocks (11th), 7.1 steals per game (22nd) and 18.2 fouls per game (7th).
According to Dunks and Threes, Denver ranks 7th in offensive rating, 11th in defensive rating, and 22nd in pace (adjusted for schedule).
Joker 30 pieces🃏
31 PTS / 7 REB / 5 AST / 2 BLK pic.twitter.com/rrgRMzQJGb
— Denver Nuggets (@nuggets) March 16, 2024
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Dallas has 4 wins and 1 loss in their last 5 games.
Dallas is averaging 119.0 points per game (6th) and shooting 48.3 percent (12th), including 37.1 percent from 3-point range (11th). He made 76.1 percent of his free throw attempts (25th) and averaged 45.2 rebounds per game (23rd). The Mavs also average 25.5 assists (22nd) and 12.4 turnovers (4th) per game.
Dallas allows 117.7 points per game (23rd) and holds opponents to 48.1 percent (20th) on 36.9 percent shooting from deep (19th) and 45.2 rebounds per game (26th). The Mavericks are averaging 4.8 blocks (22nd), 6.8 steals per game (27th) and 18.6 fouls per game (22nd).
According to Dunks and Threes, Dallas ranks 5th in offensive rating, 23rd in defensive rating, and 10th in pace (adjusted for schedule).
😮💨😮💨😮💨 https://t.co/gbg36sc9ph pic.twitter.com/Vh3bGjdHrd
— Dallas Mavericks (@dallasmavs) March 15, 2024
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Insider status:
evaluation:
Doncic missed Thursday's game and participated in Saturday's practice, so we're betting he'll suit up tomorrow. This guy is averaging a triple-double, almost 30 points, this season. He and Kyrie Irving are a great pairing, one that could provide a significant turnaround for the Mavs in next month's NBA playoffs. I'm confident that Dallas will play well and give Denver a big advantage Sunday at home against the defending champions.
The Nuggets have rim protectors (6th in opponent rim FG%), but they aren't as secure on the perimeter. The Mavericks score at a high rate in the paint and beyond the arc. That's tough for any team to defend, especially a team like Denver that doesn't create many turnovers (22nd in steals). I believe the home team will have enough to cover on Sunday.
Prediction: Dallas covers.
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evaluation:
Betting Trend: The under is 29-17 as the Nuggets have won this season.
The Mavericks rank third in the league in rim FG% and 11th in 3PT%, despite being second in 3-point percentage. In other words, defending the fourth quarter is difficult. Denver will focus a lot of energy on defense tomorrow to slow down Irving and Doncic, which will likely impact the offense, especially late in the game. The Nuggets (22nd in pace) will also do their best to slow down the tempo. If that happens, the score will be lower in the second half, and it should be under.
Prediction: Under
