Yesterday's stock price fell by about 1.25%, ending the day significantly lower. The index rose about 80 basis points yesterday, but everything started to come back in mid-afternoon.
The reason for the reversal is believed to be rising geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran. We don't know if that's the case based on the time of the headlines and the time of the market movement.
However, as the afternoon wore on, the stock price decline seemed to gain momentum. The other thing is that the stock price fell so sharply and quickly that his one-day stock price yesterday was more than double his, rising to $21.40.
This certainly creates an opportunity for volatility to fall sharply following today's jobs report, if the data is strong enough to push implied volatility further.
That said, the S&P 500 ended below the 10-exponential moving average and the 20-day moving average, and that trendline is now in the rearview mirror.
Looking at the chart, support at 5,150 appears to be an important level. A break above this level could lead to a further fall to around 5,050.
The rise was quite modest, I think it was around 1%. Oil prices bottomed out around noon, but did not rise until around 2pm, after most of the geopolitical news had passed. Therefore, the cause of the overall market decline is unclear. At this point, it is clear that the media is finding headlines that fit the price trend.
It fell in the late afternoon and returned higher, which again was not what I would have expected given geopolitical tensions.
Interest rates have actually fallen, giving things a risk-off feel.
Still, the market is reacting to a more hawkish tone from Fed officials like Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsby, who says flattening inflation may prevent the Fed from cutting rates. You could also do that.
These words came from one of the more dovish members of the committee. What's strange is that the 10-year low move happened at 2:10 p.m., just minutes after Goldsby's comments.
The knee-jerk reaction to lower the 10-year interest rate in response to such comments is understandable, as it raises concerns that the Fed will halt growth or cause a recession in the process. be.
In any case, the jobs report will be released today, and this job report could move the market. A large rise in VIX1D creates the potential for a large volatility collapse, which could result in a very short-term stock market rally.
So, given what we've seen in this market over the past five months, we can wait one more day to see what happens before making any bold predictions.
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