On a rainy Wednesday in Dallas, powerful Republican donors gathered at the home of billionaire Kelsey Warren to save House Speaker Dade Phelan's political career.
The House speaker is considered a giant in Texas politics, wielding powerful campaign-funding powers that enact legislation, appoint committee leaders and protect incumbents and other allies.
That power is surprisingly strong in the hands of David Covey, who finished top in the March primary with the support of former President Donald Trump, forcing Phelan into a close May 28 primary runoff. It was not enough to protect Mr Phelan from the challenge.
Mr. Covey tapped into growing frustration on the right wing of the Republican Party, which accused Mr. Phelan of repealing favorable legislation, including public funding for private school tuition and several efforts on border security.
If Mr. Phelan stumbles, centrist conservatives could have a diminished role in the party and be at a disadvantage in the race for control of the party.
“This is in some ways a last stand for the center-right wing of the Republican Party,” said Rice University political scientist Mark Jones.
Mr. Phelan's Dallas fundraiser was a clarion call to establishment Republicans and conservatives who see value in saving Mr. Phelan's career.
“This is an internal battle between the right-wing Republicans and the more centrist Chamber of Commerce Republicans,” said Jason Villalba, a former Republican congressman from Dallas and current independent CEO and chairman of the board. “It's a race with a lot of foresight as to who will win in the end.” of the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation.
“This civil war has been going on for almost 10 years now. It culminates in this particular race,” Villalba said.
Donors provide campaign funds to pay for expensive television, direct mail and digital advertising, as well as field operations and staff retention. Last week's fundraiser included some of the nation's biggest Republican donors, including businessman Harlan Crowe.
Phelan's biggest concern is not money. He had plenty of money for the March 5 primary, but he won 43% of the vote, falling behind Mr. Covey's 46%.
Covey, a former Orange County Republican Party chairman, has the support of Trump, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, Attorney General Ken Paxton and Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller.
Mr. Covey is as important as his powerful backers, adding support from big-time Republican donors, including Dallas businessman Doug Deason and his wife Jackie, whose May 1 fundraiser is scheduled to be hosted. The organizing committee includes businessman Kenny Trout, a Republican donor who has supported Mr. Trump and owner of the 2018 Triple Crown-winning racehorse Justify.
Mr. Paxton, who was described as a special guest at the fundraiser, is hitting back at Mr. Phelan, who voted last May with 59 other House Republicans to impeach Mr. Paxton on charges of corruption and abuse of power.
“Mr. Phelan had some disadvantages, but some of them were not his fault,” conservative radio talk show host Mark Davis said. “A growing conservative anti-incumbent mood and a strong desire to reform the so-called Austin swamp are unfavorable to him. I have decided to pursue what looks increasingly like a bitter revenge.”
Even if Phelan survives in May, he will have to fight to retain the speakership when parliament convenes in January. Republican Rep. Tom Oliverson, an anesthesiologist from Cypress, has announced his candidacy for Speaker of the House, and other members may also run for Speaker, which is decided by a vote of all 150 House members. .
Davis said Phelan's weak performance in the primary was a devastating blow.
“If we're lucky enough to survive, Dade Phelan won't be the next speaker,” Davis said. “The writing is on the wall. No matter what happens in May, the speakers will change.”
Jones said Phelan is currently trailing in the race, but could remain chairman if he survives the runoff and relies on support from Democrats and like-minded Republicans. said.
Working with Democrats to be effective has its own risks, Jones said, inviting anger from grassroots activists and potentially leading to defeat in future elections.
Impeachment changed the situation.
The 2023 legislative session was expected to feature passage of conservative items including historic property tax cuts and border security.
The focus shifted near the end of the 140-day regular session, when the House overwhelmingly voted to impeach Paxton. As a result, the Senate trial ended in September with Paxton's acquittal on a largely partisan vote. Patrick and Paxton, the impeachment judges, immediately criticized Phelan's impeachment process as “flawed,” and the attorney general said he would expel House Republicans who voted in favor of Article 20 of impeachment. I made it clear.
For Mr. Patrick, the impeachment follows a series of disputes with Mr. Phelan over issues such as the best approach to a record property tax cut and “school choice” efforts that let parents spend their tax dollars on private schools. It was just the latest in a series of loud conflicts.
Mr. Phelan was expected to have little trouble in the three-candidate primary, but the fallout from Gov. Greg Abbott, who has campaigned aggressively against incumbent House members who have blocked proposals like vouchers. As a result, an anti-incumbent mood began to develop. Paxton's political attacks on pro-impeachment Republicans.
Trump's support for Covey is also an obstacle for Phelan. The former president has strong allies with Paxton and Patrick and is popular with Republicans in southeast Texas, where Phelan's campaign is based.
Mr. Phelan has also come under fire from Republican activists for appointing Democrats to chair a handful of House committees, a practice of previous chairs who valued expertise over partisan affiliation. Ta.
“He's on the wrong side of the grassroots,” said state Agriculture Commissioner Miller, one of the first Texas leaders to endorse Mr. Covey. “The grassroots didn't like having a Democratic speaker, blocking bills, picking a fight with the Senate when it wasn't necessary.”
With many Republican leaders opposed, Mr. Phelan is focused on mobilizing his supporters in an election where turnout is likely to be low. His family has deep ties to Beaumont and the area, and Phelan Boulevard is named after his family. His great-grandfather, John Henry Phelan, made his fortune in business and also made significant contributions to philanthropy.
Advocates are calling on Phelan to air ads attacking Covey and spotlight the benefits of featuring powerful speakers who call the Beaumont area home. Mr. Phelan is the first speaker in history from this region.
Voters can also expect to be reminded of Mr. Phelan's support for conservative ideals, such as restricting abortion and allowing people to carry guns without a state-issued license.
“If you look at the last few sessions, we've had a lot of conservative wins,” said state Rep. Matt Shaheen, R-Paxton, who easily defeated Paxton-backed challenger Wayne Richard in March. Plano) said. “We want to maintain this momentum.”
Shaheen said allowing Phelan to continue as speaker would save the House from a divided search for a replacement.
“If he doesn't come back, there's going to be a lot of chaos, and we're going to focus on that and make sure that the conservative bill doesn't cross the finish line,” Shaheen said.
Some say Mr. Phelan's second-place finish in the primary has put him in a tight spot, casting doubt on the incumbent's strength in the three townships. Covey is strong at home in Orange County, so they hope to do well in Jasper County as well. Phelan's home is in Jefferson County, based in Beaumont.
“It is not clear to me what message Mr. Phelan could send to Republican primary voters in Orange and Jasper counties that would persuade them to change their support for David Covey.” said Jones.
Villalba predicted a narrow victory for Ferran.
“He certainly faces headwinds that are very unusual for a sitting speaker,” Villalba said. “Mr. Phelan has ruled in a very conservative manner, ushering in the most conservative legislation in Texas history, from abortion to guns and every other red-meat issue that conservatives care about.”
stakes are higher than usual
The urgency of the primary runoff election is even greater, with high-stakes stakes.
Far-right conservatives have long coveted the speaker's role, recognizing the position's power to influence legislation.
Conservative defenders fell far short of mustering the required 76-vote majority, as MP Tony Tinderholt challenged Mr Phelan at the start of the 2023 session. Phelan won 145-3.
Ousting Mr. Phelan would give far-right Republicans even more of a chance to elect their own Republican as speaker. That would give them further legitimacy as they vie for leadership within the party.
“There's no bigger target than the Speaker of the House,” said Bill Miller, an Austin-based lobbyist and political consultant. “Everything is at stake for almost everyone.”
The 2024 election season has been marked by the ouster of at least eight House incumbents who were targeted by Mr. Abbott, Mr. Paxton, or both. In addition, eight current members of Congress who were targeted are participating in the primary runoff elections.
“It's democracy at work,” Sid Miller said of the Texas Republican Party's grassroots struggle. “There's free speech, and they're taking advantage of it and winning with speech. They're taking it to the incumbent. They're cornered enough.”
Some business-minded Republicans believe that defeating Mr. Phelan would remove the House from its role as a check on legislation coming from the upper chamber, which is dominated by far-right conservatives such as Mr. Patrick, who presides over the Senate as lieutenant governor. Some people are worried that they will be exposed.
“The scary thing is that we could have a Republican Party that moves the House and Senate to the right and tries to give them an advantage,” Jones said.
“The Harlan Clowes and Kelsey Warrens of the world will wake up one Wednesday in November wondering if there is no one to protect the Republican Party from them, and the Republican Party has moved too far to the right, and there will be a backlash. “And Democrats control Texas,” he said.
