This summer in Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas has been historically hot and dangerous. Triple-digit temperatures tested the state's power grid, halted cattle ranching and highlighted the importance of life-saving air conditioning. More than 20 people died from heatstroke in Dallas and Tarrant counties.
A widespread heatwave made this summer the world's hottest on record, with temperatures about 2 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average. Scientists see this heat not as an abnormal phenomenon, but as a step toward an even hotter future.
So how hot was it?
This summer was the second warmest on record, after 2011, when Texas suffered an extended drought. Parts of southern Texas experienced the hottest weather on record. He was third-hottest in Dallas-Fort Worth.
“It's clear that 2011 remains a record summer for Texas, and 2023 is right behind us,” said Karin Gleason, director of monitoring at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Center for Environmental Information. did. The average high temperature in the summer of 2023 was 98.3 degrees, and the average high temperature in 2011 was 100.1 degrees.
Gleason said summer temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere are measured between June and August, with September considered part of fall. But if you're thinking September 2023 was particularly hot, you'd be right. The average high temperature was 94.6 degrees, the hottest on record in Texas.
This summer, the Dallas-Fort Worth area endured 47 days of triple-digit temperatures. Temperatures remained high in September, with eight days of triple-digit high temperatures. In parts of Brewster County in southwestern Texas, average high temperatures in September exceeded 103 degrees.
“Typically, we get warmer early in the spring, and the warm season extends further into the fall,” Gleason said.
Christy Dahl, a climate scientist with the nonprofit Union of Concerned Scientists, said scientists know that climate change is making the planet hotter. As average temperatures rise, heat waves last longer and become more intense.
To determine whether this summer's record-breaking temperatures were caused by climate change, climate scientists are looking at how this century's summers and heat records compare to those in the past. Masu.
“It's not proven by a hot summer or a dry summer, it's proven by a series of events over a long period of time,” said Michael Slattery, dean of the College of Environmental and Sustainability Sciences at Texas Christian University. “And that trend is emerging very strongly.”
The Climate Change Index, a tool developed by researchers at the nonprofit organization Climate Central, aims to determine the impact of climate change on daily temperatures. An analysis of Climate Central data by the Union of Concerned Scientists found that 84% of U.S. heat warnings issued since May 1 were clearly linked to climate change.
What makes the Texas heat wave worse?
Summers in Texas are dry, and this year was the fourth driest in North Texas history. Dry heat has its benefits. Humidity causes sweat to stick to the skin without evaporating, making it difficult for your body temperature to drop. But they can also worsen summer conditions, increasing the risk of wildfires and scorching trees that provide shade. Storms can lower temperatures, but dry air can cause moisture to evaporate and destroy them.
North Texas cities are full of asphalt parking lots and concrete sidewalks, which act as “heat sponges” that absorb heat during the day and release it into the air at night. This emission contributes to the urban heat island effect, which explains why areas with direct sunlight, man-made surfaces, and limited shade take longer to cool down at night.
Due to historical zoning regulations and other factors, Dallas' urban heat island tends to occur in areas with high concentrations of black and Hispanic residents, such as West Dallas and South Dallas.us census estimates that in 2019, more than 1.2 million people in Dallas County were socially vulnerable to extreme heat due to risk factors such as economic hardship, housing quality, and communication barriers between household members. was.
Will the coming summer get even hotter?
Gleeson said El Niño events, which occur every few years, cause ocean temperatures to rise above average, bring rainfall and disrupt weather patterns, and are expected to cause higher-than-normal global temperatures in the coming months. said.
El Niño is expected to peak this winter, potentially bringing rain and moisture to Texas with hurricanes. If this trend continues into next year, Gleason explained, summers could be even colder, but it's too early to know.
“But we can say that variability is a natural part of the climate system,” Gleason said. “Just because the last two summers were warm does not guarantee we will have another near-record or even record summer in 2024.”
Dahl said he expects summer heatwaves to become more frequent and intense in the future, and “we believe this summer is a step along a worsening trajectory.”
He said cities should open cooling shelters, distribute window air conditioners to people in need and implement bill assistance programs to help residents pay their electricity bills.
The Dallas Office of Emergency Management website has a list of cooling centers throughout the city. Several organizations, including Dallas Senior Source and Dallas County Health and Human Services, hosted free air conditioner giveaways this summer.
Dahl said it was important to raise awareness about the signs and symptoms of heat stroke. Across the country and in Texas, high school football teams are practicing in dangerously hot August weather. Several teams in the Dallas area practiced in the early morning or evening hours of August and delayed game start times for the first two weeks of the season.
Cities are working to make their infrastructure more heat-resistant. Phoenix is testing a product called CoolSeal that acts like a sunscreen for roads, making asphalt more reflective and absorbing less sunlight during the day.
Slattery emphasized the importance of parks and trees that provide shade and counteract the urban heat island effect.
In September, Downtown Dallas celebrated the opening of Harwood Park, the fourth and final park in a partnership between the city and the Downtown Dallas Park Conservancy. The Texas Tree Foundation is promoting tree-planting projects to increase Dallas' urban tree canopy.
Dahl said it was important to curb global emissions of greenhouse gases, mainly released when burning fossil fuels, to prevent summer temperatures from worsening. Compared to other climate change indicators such as sea level rise, heat is more sensitive to changes in greenhouse gas emissions, he said.
“The changes we make to our emissions today have a huge impact on the heat we experience later in life.”
In 2021, President Joe Biden announced a goal to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas pollution by 50% to 52% from 2005 levels by 2030. Experts estimate that the Anti-Inflation Act of 2022, which includes tax credits, will incentivize clean energy investments and electricity purchases. If cars and solar panels are fully implemented, emissions could be cut by 40% by 2030.
Slattery said Texas' energy-related greenhouse gas emissions have remained relatively flat for the past 20 years. According to a report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Texas produced 663.5 million tons of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, in 2021, the highest of any state and more than twice that of California, which ranks second. It became.
Slattery's approach to the North Texas summer is to escape it. He travels to South Africa every year to run a rhino conservation program, but misses some of the triple-digit temperatures. When he returned at the end of July, he said the heat hit him like a wall.
“For me, it's no longer a question of whether it's happening or not. [how] We adapt to it and try to mitigate it. ”
Aditi Ramakrishnan is a science reporting fellow at the Dallas Morning News. Her fellowship is supported by the University of Texas at Dallas. News makes all editorial decisions.
