2024 NBA Playoffs: The biggest factors that will decide the second series of Thunder vs. Mavericks, Celtics vs. Cavaliers

The other half of the NBA's conference semifinal round begins Tuesday night, with the Cleveland Cavaliers taking on the Eastern Conference's top-seeded Celtics in Boston, while the Dallas Mavericks travel to Oklahoma City to take on their Red River rivals. It brings the relationship to the hardwood. They will face the West's No. 1 seed, the Thunder.

For Cleveland, this means a return to the conference semifinals for the first time since 2018 and the first time since 1993 without LeBron James. Meanwhile, Boston has now advanced to the second round of the playoffs seven times in the last eight years and is looking to advance to the conference finals for the sixth time in that span.

Dallas is making the playoffs for the second time in three years after reaching the Western Conference Finals two years ago, and Oklahoma City is making the second round for the first time since 2016, when they won a classic seven-game series. We lost in the conference. The final game will be against the Golden State Warriors, who have won 73 games.

Here are three key storylines to look out for in each series. These should play a big role in determining who comes out on top.

more: Everything you need to know about the playoffs | Offseason guide for each team

Jarrett Allen's health

The biggest question heading into this series will be whether Cleveland's starting center will be able to play after missing the remaining three games of the Cavaliers' first-round win over the Orlando Magic with a bruised rib.

Allen is a strong two-way presence in Cleveland's midfield, forming one of the best defensive units in the league with Evan Mobley. According to Second Spectrum tracking, the Cavaliers allowed just 0.78 points per direct drive when they shared the floor during the playoffs.

With Kristaps Porzingis likely to miss Boston's series with a calf strain, Cleveland's size could make him a real threat in the paint, assuming Allen is on the court.

There were some offensive issues with Cleveland playing two big players who can't shoot together. But the more pressing issue for the Cavaliers is that if Allen is unavailable, it means running out either Tristan Thompson or Marcus Morris Sr. at center behind Mobley. The Cavs' lack of interior depth against the Celtics' offense could become a serious issue as the series progresses.

Which backcourt can control the flow of play?

The focus in Boston will start with All-Star scorers Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, but it will be Derrick White and Jrue Holiday, one of the league's elite defensive duos, who will determine whether this series is competitive. It's probably the back coat.

According to ESPN Stats & Information, the Celtics have a defensive efficiency rating of 96.6 this postseason when White and Holiday are on the court.

He's also a great matchup for Cleveland's starting backcourt of Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland, with Holiday having the strength to match Mitchell and White having the size and quickness to challenge Garland. be.

If Cleveland is to have a chance in this series, Mitchell will have to be the best player on the court and be far more impactful than he was in Game 7 against Orlando, where Garland scored 12 points on 3-fors. There will be a need. -13 Shooting.

However, if White and Holiday play their opponents and get a tie or an outright victory, this series could be a landslide. The first round showed the Cavaliers relied on Mitchell's scoring. It's no different when facing the league's best offense in Boston.

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Key numbers behind the Cavaliers vs. Celtics NBA playoff matchup

Let's take a look at the key stats and sports betting nuggets ahead of the Cavaliers vs. Celtics NBA playoff game.

Can Cleveland keep up with Boston's 3-point shooting?

One of the ways the extreme underdogs can make the series more competitive is by outscoring their opponents from the 3-point line.

But the problem with taking that approach against the Celtics is that they've made and attempted more threes than any other team this season (by a significant amount), and their 3-point percentage They finished in 2nd place (1/10) in the league. They were just one point behind the league leader Oklahoma City Thunder.

Last summer, Cleveland signed Georges Niang and Max Strus after they didn't make enough shots in a first-round loss to the New York Knicks. And while Cleveland has moved into the top 10 in 3-point shots made (7th) and attempts (8th) this season, it ranks last in makes, third-to-last in attempts, and third-to-last in 3-point percentage. He was second from last. (28.9%) During the series with Magic. Meanwhile, no team made more 3s per game than Boston in the first round.

— Tim Bontemps

Luka Doncic vs. Lu Dort

Dallas advanced through the first round despite the MVP candidate enduring a shooting slump and playing much of the series with a sprained right knee. Now Doncic has to deal with Dort, who has quick feet and is one of the league's best on-ball defenders. Dort just bullied New Orleans' Brandon Ingram in the Thunder's first-round sweep, but Doncic will be a much tougher challenge as the rare elite offensive creator to match Dort's sheer strength.

Doncic averaged 34.0 points, 13.5 assists, and 71.0 true shooting percentage in two games with the Thunder this season. Doncic scored 20 points on 8-of-14 shooting, including 4-of-8 from 3-point range, when Dort was his primary defender, according to NBA Advanced Stats player tracking.

However, his long-range shooting percentage against the Los Angeles Clippers was only 23.9%, and he was given up on Doncic's 3-point touch in the first round. He struggled, especially after spraining his knee in the first quarter of Game 3, and made 7 of 41 3-pointers in the final four games of the series. Stiffness in his knees makes it difficult for Doncic to create the separation and lift he's accustomed to with his stepback jumper, the NBA scoring leader's favorite weapon. And Doncic expects his knee to be a problem for the Mavs the rest of the playoffs.

“I don't think it's going to get better until I get some rest,” Doncic said after playing 43 minutes in the Game 6 win. “Maybe this summer, since I have a lot of minutes.”

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The important numbers behind the Mavericks vs. Thunder NBA playoff matchup

Let's take a look at the key stats and sports betting nuggets ahead of the Mavericks vs. Thunder NBA playoff game.

Will the Mavs pay Josh Guidy?

The Mavs essentially didn't guard Giddy in Dallas' blowout win on Feb. 10, the only matchup of four meetings between Doncic and Kyrie Irving. The Mavs' center was Guidi's primary defender, hanging far away from him to clog driving lanes and basically begging the OKC guard to shoot from far away from the corner.

Guidi was 3-of-14 from the floor and 3-of-9 from 3-point range, and the Thunder trailed by 23 points in 23 minutes on the court.

“We've seen it all year, so it's not new to us,” Thunder manager Mark Dynaud said of Dallas' defensive strategy after the game. “We want to have a variety of attacks against him, including cutting, including using him as a screener, so he's confident when he has an open shot. That worked for me today for a lot more reasons than just that.” [Giddey]. We've seen it a lot. We have successfully attacked it in the past. We must continue to learn and grow from it. ”

The game fueled the debate over whether Guidy would be a long-term fit alongside Oklahoma City's star trio of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and Jaylen Williams. There were also growing doubts about whether Guidi would be available for extra time in the playoffs.

Will this strategy work for this series? After the All-Star break, Guidi improved his ball shooting (36.0 3s), going 8-of-13 from behind the arc in the Thunder's last two games against the Pelicans.

How much will the Mavs miss Maxi Kleber?

It is a big blow that Kleber, the main backup, will be sidelined from the series due to a shoulder injury.

Kleber's impact goes far beyond the box score numbers (5.7 points and 2.7 rebounds per game in the first round). One team official said he is the Mavs' “secret weapon heading into the playoffs.” He's an outstanding defender, shooting 45.8 percent from 3-point range over the past two postseasons, compared to just 29.8 percent for the Clippers when Kerber was their primary defender, according to ESPN Stats & Information. and gave coach Jason Kidd more diversity in his lineup.

Without Clever, the Mavs no longer have an attractive small-ball lineup. Kleber played center in a lineup that allowed him to switch everything up defensively and play a five-out offensive style. It would have been a valuable option to alleviate Thunder rookie Chet Holmgren's presence as a rim protector.

Kleber is also an integral part of the Mavs' supersized lineup and could be useful against an Oklahoma City team that ranks 28th in the league in rebounding percentage this season. That lineup played a key role in the Mavs defeating the Clippers in a crucial Game 5, and when Kleber was paired with either Daniel Gafford or Derek Lively II, Dallas defeated Los Angeles in 19 minutes. 17 points higher.

— Tim McMahon