Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. claims he can win Texas, but he has a wide lead in third place in the state's polls.
Although it is nearly impossible for him to win Texas' 40 electoral votes, Kennedy's positions on issues important to Texans mean he will receive more votes from either President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump. It may decide whether to siphon off votes.
Some of his top campaign positions appeal to or antagonize supporters of both candidates.
I interviewed Kennedy before his speech at last month's EarthX environmental rally in Dallas. Later that night, he attended a reception held by Dallas businessman Trammell Crowe.
“We can beat Texas,” Kennedy told me. “We just need to get to 33%.”
No third-party candidate has ever won a presidential election, and winning in Texas, a politically polarized state with few independent voters, will be a difficult task.
Another hurdle is that Texas has some of the strictest requirements in the nation for getting third-party candidates on the ballot.
According to the Texas Secretary of State's Office, independent presidential candidates need to collect 113,151 signatures from registered voters who did not vote for either party in the presidential primary. A signed application must be submitted by him by May 13th.
President Kennedy has not yet submitted an application, but says he has 200,000 petition signatures, enough to qualify for the November ballot.
“We have the best field operations of any campaign, and it took just one month to double the number of signatures required on Texas ballots,” Kennedy said. Told. “We are here to vote.”
A poll conducted last week by the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas paints a different picture of how Texans feel about Kennedy. The results show Trump leading Biden 45% to 36%, with Kennedy leading by a whopping 8%. In a hypothetical head-to-head race, Trump would lead Biden 48% to 40%.
“There's certainly no indication that he can remotely compete here,” said Jim Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project.
Questions surrounding Kennedy's campaign primarily concerned his role as a potential spoiler. Democrats are worried that Robert F. Kennedy's son will steal votes from Biden in key battleground states such as Michigan, where the average independent poll is over 8%.
Last month, at least 15 of Mr. Kennedy's relatives publicly endorsed Mr. Biden, indicating they fear his third-party bid could lead to a victory for Mr. Trump. There is.
During my interview with Kennedy, I stated that both parties were concerned about his potential as a spoiler. He disagreed that Republicans are concerned.
“Democrats call me a spoiler, but the definition of a spoiler is someone who can't win,” he said. “By that definition, President Biden is a spoiler. … Polls consistently show that he cannot beat President Trump, whether I run or lose the election. They , shows that I can beat President Trump in a head-to-head match.”
Henson said polls in Texas showed Kennedy was viewed more negatively by Democrats than Republicans. Nearly half of Democrats surveyed view Kennedy as “very unfavorable,” compared to 8% of Republicans.
“For Texas voters, the idea that they would vote for Biden as a matter of course does not hold up to scrutiny,” Henson said.
President Kennedy has taken conservative positions on several high-profile Texas issues, including immigration and border security.
He said he would “close our borders” to deal with the migrant crisis.
Unlike many Democrats, Kennedy does not support a path to citizenship without permission for the nation's roughly 12 million people.
“Until we close the borders, I don't think any politician should be talking about a path to citizenship for that group,” he said. “Americans have an obligation to close our borders first before we consider how to deal with the massive influx of immigrants.”
This is a position accepted by conservatives, not Democratic-leaning voters who might consider alternatives to Biden.
Abortion rights advocates have criticized Kennedy. In Michigan and Wisconsin, the Reproductive Freedom for All Freedom Fund released an ad last week depicting President Kennedy and his running mate, California attorney Nicole Shanahan, as threats to abortion rights. announced.
Kennedy's other positions may be more acceptable to Trump supporters. Kennedy, known for his anti-vaccine movement, opposes mandatory vaccines and questions the use of such drugs to curb the coronavirus pandemic. Kennedy has led a movement that rejects the scientific consensus that vaccines are effective and safe, which has helped him build a base of support with some dissatisfied voters.
Still, many of the core issues of Mr. Kennedy's campaign are seen as liberal, and he has spent his career as an environmental activist.
He said the most important issues he is pushing are “how to get young people into housing,” curbing the spread of chronic disease, ending the debt crisis, stopping corrupt corporate mergers and ensuring that governments He told me that it was about making sure officials weren't lying.
He also said he would end “toxic polarization” within the government.
“President Trump and President Biden feed into this problem so much that they can't deal with it. They're products of it,” Kennedy said. “They're telling both sides to hate the other. I'm the only one looking for issues that unite Americans instead of focusing on culture war issues that divide us.”
He said the unpopularity of Biden and Trump is giving third-party candidates an opportunity to shine.
“They are literally the most unpopular people in history, and no one wants that. So this is a unique time in history,” Kennedy said.
The Republican and Democratic candidates may be unpopular choices, but one of them will become president.
As for Kennedy, his influence on that decision is still evolving.
