The Dallas Mavericks and Minnesota Timberwolves are set to meet in the Western Conference Finals starting on Wednesday night, and while Minnesota won the season series 3-1, a closer look at these games reveals that there isn’t much to take from them.
Luka Doncic has only played in two games against the Timberwolves, and Kyrie Irving has only played in one game. Their only appearance together was Game 3, which Dallas won. The Mavericks started Jaden Hardy, Tim Hardaway Jr., Josh Green, Grant Williams, and Richaun Holmes in Game 4, and in Game 2 (which the Mavericks lost by just eight points). The starting lineup includes Hardy, Dante Exum, Derrick Jones Jr., Williams, and Derek Lively II. The Dallas Mavericks, who are currently in the conference finals, are certainly not one of them.
Hardaway, Grant Williams, Derrick Jones Jr., Dwight Powell and Hardy are the Mavericks players who have played the most minutes against the Timberwolves, but Hardaway and Williams are the only two to have played at least 100 minutes. Unless Hardaway and Hardy have strong games, Jones will be the only one to get significant playing time in this series. All games took place before the trade deadline, with Dallas acquiring Daniel Gafford and PJ Washington. They have played a key role in rebuilding the Mavericks defense.
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So what statistics can we find out?
This will be a series between two elite defenses: Minnesota had the best defensive rating in the NBA throughout the regular season, while Dallas had the best defensive rating in the NBA over the final 20 games of the regular season.
To further demonstrate their strong defense, Dallas just held Oklahoma City, the NBA’s leading 3-point shooting team, to just 33.8% from three throughout the second round after shooting 38.9% in the regular season. They also outrebounded the Thunder by 41 points in the final five games of the series, including 30 points in the final two games alone. It’ll be tough to do against a Minnesota front that was +22 on the glass in Denver’s final two games, but they have a chance with Lively, Gafford and Washington.
Minnesota was one of the best teams in the NBA, keeping opponents out of the paint and allowing 46.1 paint points per game. Despite finishing series against Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon, that number dropped to 42 PPG in the playoffs. The big trio of Rudy Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Naz Reid makes it difficult for Interior to score. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving may lack work on drives, and it may be even harder to land lob passes to Derrick Jones Jr., Daniel Gafford and Derek Lively II.
If Dallas takes the same defensive approach against Minnesota as Oklahoma City, Anthony Edwards will have to settle for mid-range jumpers and be the leading scorer. In the playoffs, Edwards is 19-of-43 (44.2%) on mid-range attempts and 78-of-154 (50.6%) on shots that require three or more dribbles. I expect Dallas to try to run out the clock on defense. Even if they can get Minnesota in late situations, Edwards still isn’t that deadly there, shooting 21-of-53 (39.6%) with less than 7 seconds on the shot clock. Still, Edwards has averaged over 28 PPG this postseason, and his motor never turns off. Even if things don’t work out offensively, he’ll find a way to be effective.
The Mavs did a great job of limiting everyone but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the semifinals, but Karl-Anthony Towns is a better natural scorer than any second option OKC had. He averaged 18.8 PPG in the playoffs and shot 44% from 3-point range as Minnesota’s second option. No other player averaged more than 12.4 PPG in the playoffs for the Wolves. It was all about their defense. Towns has had some big games with P.J. Washington, including scoring 62 points against the Hornets in January before Washington was traded. According to the NBA box score, 18 of those points came for Washington as the primary defender, even though he only defended Towns for a small portion of the game. Coach Jason Kidd will likely play vanilla Game 1 and make adjustments as needed. If Towns explodes over his 30s, we can talk about changing the way Help PJ does things. If Towns stays in the 15-20 points per game range, as he has for most of the playoffs, Dallas will be fine.
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Minnesota’s defense has allowed just 99.6 PPG this postseason. Dallas is just 1-3 in games under 100 points in the playoffs, meaning Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving will have to be strong in this series.
The Timberwolves also do a great job of converting steals. In the postseason, they were 5-0 in games with 8 steals or more and 3-3 in games with less, and in the playoffs they averaged 17.1 PPG from turnovers, the best of any remaining team. It becomes. Dallas ran the ball a lot against OKC, averaging 13.7 ppg, including 7.7 steals. Minnesota has some troublesome defenders in Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, and Mike Conley. Dallas will need to take better care of the ball in this series.
Minnesota’s 3-point shooting percentage is average in the playoffs at 35.8%, but Dallas should note that Towns, Conley, and Edwards are all shooting around 40% or higher from deep. Nickel-Alexander-Walker (SGA’s cousin) and Jayden McDaniels have their moments as shooters, but most of their shots come from open looks. Dallas will likely be selective about who gets open, just like they did in OKC, but they will do their best to keep their shooting rhythm intact.
This series may hinge on Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert. He averaged 2.1 blocks per game this season, but only 1.3 BPG in the last game against Denver. The last time Luka Doncic faced Gobert in the 2022 playoffs, Dallas was spacing the floor with Maxi Kleber, and Gobert was largely ineffective as Doncic could overwork Gobert whenever he had a turnover. Doncic has also been in this situation since he was playing through an injury at the time. With Kleber out for at least the beginning of the series, Dallas has no one to pick and fly around, so Derek Lively II and Daniel Gafford will start at the rim. Doncic can still step back and create space, and Kyrie Irving is better with the ball than anyone, but he will have to find new ways to beat Gobert, whether that be floaters, lobs, or pull-ups.
As a general experience going into the postseason this far, players who have appeared in conference finals with both teams include: Kyrie Irving (three appearances), Luka Doncic (one), Josh Green (one), Derrick Jones Jr. (one), Maxi Kleber (one), Markieff Morris (one appearance, benched the other and likely will not play in this series), Dwight Powell (one), and Mike Conley (one). Conley is the only Timberwolf player to appear in a conference finals, and that was in 2013 with the Memphis Grizzlies.
Game 1 begins on Wednesday at 7:30 pm CST at Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
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