On a rainy Wednesday in Dallas, top Republican donors gathered at the home of billionaire Kelcy Warren to help save House Speaker Dade Phelan’s political career.
The House speaker is considered a giant in Texas politics, wielding powerful campaign-funding powers that enact legislation, appoint committee leaders and protect incumbents and other allies.
That power wasn’t enough to protect Mr. Phelan from a surprisingly strong challenge from David Covey, who earned the endorsement of former President Donald Trump and finished top in the March primary, thrusting Mr. Phelan into a close call May 28 primary runoff.
Covey capitalized on growing frustration from the Republican right, who blame Phelan for the deaths of popular bills, including public funding for private school tuition and several border security initiatives.
If Phelan stumbles, moderate conservatives could see their role in the Republican Party shrink and find themselves at a disadvantage in the fight for party leadership.
“This is kind of the last stand for the center-right Republican Party,” said Mark Jones, a political scientist at Rice University.
Mr. Phelan’s Dallas fundraiser was a clarion call to establishment Republicans and conservatives who see value in saving Mr. Phelan’s career.
“This is a race that will be a barometer of who is ultimately going to win in the infighting between right-wing Republicans and centrist Chamber Republicans,” said Jason Villalba, a former Republican congressman from Dallas who is now an independent and CEO and president of the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation.
“This civil war has been going on for almost 10 years now. It culminates in this particular race,” Villalba said.
Donors help campaigns pay for expensive television, direct mail and digital ads, as well as fund field operations and staff retention. Last week’s fundraiser featured some of the nation’s biggest Republican donors, including businessman Harlan Crow.
Money isn’t Phelan’s biggest concern: He had plenty of cash on hand in the March 5 primary, but still only won 43% of the vote to Covey’s 46%.
Covey, a former Orange County Republican Party chairman, has the support of Trump, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, Attorney General Ken Paxton and Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller.
Mr. Covey is as important as his powerful backers, adding support from big-time Republican donors, including Dallas businessman Doug Deason and his wife Jackie, whose May 1 fundraiser is scheduled to be hosted. The organizing committee includes businessman Kenny Trout, a Republican donor who has supported Mr. Trump and owner of the 2018 Triple Crown-winning racehorse Justify.
Mr. Paxton, who was described as a special guest at the fundraiser, is firing back at Mr. Phelan, who along with 59 other House Republicans voted to impeach Mr. Paxton last May on charges of corruption and abuse of power.
“Phelan has had some downsides, some of which are not his fault,” conservative radio talk show host Mark Davis said. “The growing conservative anti-incumbency mood and a strong desire to reform the so-called Austin swamp have not gone to his favor. He has made the decision to pursue what looks increasingly like a bitter vendetta against Attorney General Ken Paxton, who was well-liked by a majority of his own voters.”
Even if Phelan survives in May, he will likely have to fight to keep his position when the Legislature convenes in January. Republican Rep. Tom Oliverson, an anesthesiologist from Cypress, has announced his candidacy for speaker, and others could run in the race, which is decided by a vote of all 150 House members.
Davis said Phelan’s weak showing in the primary was a devastating blow.
“If we’re lucky enough to survive, Dade Phelan will not be the next speaker,” Davis said. “The writing is on the wall. Whatever happens in May, the speaker will be different.”
Jones said Phelan is currently behind in the race but could remain speaker if he can rely on support from Democrats and like-minded Republicans to survive a runoff election.
Working with Democrats to be effective carries the unique risk of drawing ire from grassroots activists and potentially leading to defeat in future elections, Jones said.
Impeachment changed the game.
The 2023 legislative session was expected to focus on passing conservative items, including historic real estate tax cuts and border security.
The focus shifted near the end of the 140-day regular session, when the House overwhelmingly voted to impeach Paxton. As a result, the Senate trial ended in September with Paxton’s acquittal on a largely partisan vote. Patrick and Paxton, the impeachment judges, immediately criticized Phelan’s impeachment process as “flawed,” and the attorney general said he would expel House Republicans who voted in favor of Article 20 of impeachment. I made it clear.
For Patrick, the impeachment was just the latest in a series of vocal clashes with Phelan over issues such as the best approach to record property tax cuts and “school choice” efforts to let parents spend their tax money on private schools.
Phelan was expected to do relatively well in the three-candidate primary, but an anti-incumbency mood was brewing, in part due to Gov. Greg Abbott’s aggressive campaign against House incumbents who blocked voucher-like initiatives, and Paxton’s political attacks on pro-impeachment Republicans.
Trump’s endorsement of Covey also poses a hurdle for Phelan: The former president is a strong ally of Paxton and Patrick and is popular among Republicans in southeast Texas, where Phelan’s district is based.
Phelan has also come under fire from Republican activists for appointing Democrats to lead several House committees, a practice followed by past chairs who prioritized expertise over partisan affiliation.
“He’s on the wrong side of the grassroots,” said state Agriculture Commissioner Miller, one of the first Texas leaders to endorse Mr. Covey. “The grassroots didn’t like having a Democratic speaker, blocking bills, picking a fight with the Senate when it wasn’t necessary.”
With many Republican officials opposed, Phelan is trying to sway his supporters in an election where turnout is likely to be low. Phelan’s family has deep ties to Beaumont and the constituency, with Phelan having a street named after him. His great-grandfather, John Henry Phelan, made his fortune in business and was also active in philanthropy.
Supporters are pressuring Phelan to air ads attacking Covey and highlighting the benefits of having a leading speaker from the Beaumont area — the first speaker ever to come from the area.
Voters can also expect to be reminded of Mr. Phelan’s support for conservative ideals, such as abortion restrictions and the ability to carry guns without a state-issued license.
“If you look at the last few sessions, we’ve had a lot of conservative wins,” said state Rep. Matt Shaheen (R-Plano), who handily defeated Paxton-backed challenger Wayne Richard in March. “I want to keep that momentum going.”
Shaheen said allowing Phelan to continue as speaker would save the House from a divided search for a replacement.
“If he doesn’t come back, there will be major disruption and we won’t be able to focus even more on that and get the conservative bill across the finish line,” Shaheen said.
Others say Mr. Phelan’s second-place finish in the primary put him in a tight spot and called into question the strength of the incumbent in the three townships. Covey is strong at home in Orange County, so they hope to do well in Jasper County as well. Phelan’s home is in Jefferson County, based in Beaumont.
“It’s not clear to me what message Phelan could send to Republican primary voters in Orange and Jasper counties that would convince them to change their support for David Covey,” Jones said.
Villalba predicted Ferran would win by a narrow margin.
“He’s certainly facing some very unusual headwinds for a sit-down speaker,” Villalba said. “Phelan has governed very conservatively and shepherded some of the most conservative legislation in Texas history on everything from abortion to guns and all the other red meat issues that conservatives care about.”
The stakes are higher than usual
The urgency of the primary runoff election is even greater, with high-stakes stakes.
Hard-right conservatives have long coveted the speaker role, recognizing the power the position gives them in influencing legislation.
Conservative supporters fell far short of mustering the 76-vote majority needed to get Rep. Tony Tinderholt to challenge Phelan at the start of the 2023 session, with Phelan winning 145-3.
Expelling Phelan would not only give the far-right Republicans another chance to elect one of their own as speaker, but it would also give them greater legitimacy in the battle for control of the party.
“There’s no bigger target than the speaker of the House,” said Bill Miller, an Austin-based lobbyist and political consultant. “Everything is at stake for almost everyone.”
The 2024 election season has been marked by the ouster of at least eight House incumbents who were targeted by Mr. Abbott, Mr. Paxton, or both. In addition, eight current members of Congress who were targeted are participating in the primary runoff elections.
“It’s democracy at work,” Sid Miller said of the Texas Republican Party’s grassroots struggle. “There’s free speech, and they’re taking advantage of it and winning with speech. They’re taking it to the incumbent. They’re cornered enough.”
Some pro-business Republicans worry that defeating Phelan would remove the House from its role as a check on bills emanating from a Senate dominated by far-right conservatives, including Patrick, who, as lieutenant governor, presides over the Senate.
“The scary thing is we could have a Republican Party in the House and Senate that is going to move to the right and put itself in a favorable position,” Jones said.
“The Harlan Clowes and Kelcy Warrens of the world are worried that no one is going to protect the Republican Party from them, and that the Republican Party has moved too far to the right, and there’s a backlash, and then they wake up one Wednesday in November and the Democrats have taken control of Texas,” he said.
