ARLINGTON — The Texas Rangers boasted the best lineup in the American League in 2023. They were supposed to be even better in 2024. And now, approaching the midpoint of the season, they acknowledge they’ve reached a key juncture in the season but are still unsure about one very important element.
Is there no one around here who can hit a fastball?
Baseball’s offense has declined this year. Call me a dead-ball conspiracy theorist, but look no further than the Rangers. No team has declined more offensively than the Rangers. The team that led the AL in runs, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS last year is below the AL average in all of those categories entering the last week of June. The AL’s OPS is down 28 points year over year, with most of that coming from the Rangers, who dropped from .790 in 2023 to .693 this season.
As an exasperated coach, Bruce Bochy, said last week, “What do you want me to do? We have a better offense than this, but we’ve got to find a way to score points. We’ve mixed and matched different tactics, we’ve tried different things, and we’re going to keep trying different things until we get better.”
The question is, will it happen?
The Rangers aren’t actually being fooled. Teams are coming at them with high fastballs, and the Rangers just can’t keep up. Against the four-seam pitches, the Rangers’ batting average is 26th (.226), down more than 30 points from last season. When you dig deeper into expected outcomes like expected runs value, expected slugging percentage and expected weighted on-base percentage, the picture gets even worse.
There are some explanations for the downturn. The Rangers have used two rookies, Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford, who will struggle at some point. But what’s more worrying is that nearly half of their lineup is made up of young veterans who appear to be fading. All four — Adoris Garcia, Jonah Heim, Nathaniel Lowe and Leody Taveras — are of arbitration age, and the Rangers will have to make long-term, expensive decisions about them after this season. The guy who can’t hit the fastball? He’s probably not going to be a long-term player for the team.
So what’s happening with them? Let’s take a look:
Garcia: He’s been swinging at the first pitch too often. He’s always been tempted and tormented by fastballs at or above the top of the zone. As he said in spring training, “That’s the story of my career.”
His swing rate at first pitches has increased by about 50% regardless of pitch type. The biggest change this year, according to Statcast, is that he’s started going for low, outside pitches in his at-bats, something he didn’t do as often as last year. He’s seen more changeups than last year, and he’s already seen 37 first pitches that are low and outside the zone. He’s swung and missed 20 of those times, giving him a swing and miss rate of 54%.
When a pitcher bats before a batter, the at-bat clearly favors the pitcher. In Garcia’s case, he’s able to throw a fastball above the zone without any resistance. Garcia has already been in two-strike counts 305 times this season. He threw a fastball 107 times, 71 of which were above or above the zone. He’s 2-for-35 (.057), with two singles and 24 strikeouts. It’s a pitch that’s almost automatic.
It may not be possible to eliminate chasing, but it can be reduced. An easier solution might be to allow hitters to swing less early in the count, thus allowing the count to be more favorable for the hitter.
But there’s one long-term concern: He’s not hitting fastballs that are in the middle of the zone well. On 59 fastballs that Statcast defines as middle of the zone, he’s batting just .167. His strikeout rate (.169) on those meatballs is higher than his batting average (.167). A year ago, he was batting .333 with a slugging percentage of .808. Worst case scenario: It suggests his bat may be dulling. More likely case: Pitchers are too close to his eye level, causing him to whiff on balls he should be smashing.
Heim: His long frame and long limbs translate to a long swing — new Statcast metrics put him in the 26th percentile for bat speed and 38th percentile for swing length — which is not a recipe for success against fastballs.
Heim’s slugging percentage against fastballs is projected to be .353, which is 177th out of 205 players who have thrown at least 750 pitches this year. Against average to above-average velocity (94 mph or faster) his slugging percentage drops to .241 against left-handed batters, who account for the majority of switch-hitters’ at-bats. Among left-handed hitters (thrown at least 100 pitches 94 mph or faster), he’s 143rd out of 148.
When an opponent launches a strong attack in the late innings, the catcher often becomes even more tired, further reducing the chances.
Row: Nobody has seen more Statcast-defined fastballs than Lowe. In fact, virtually nobody. Justin Turner, who’ll soon be 40, has seen 67.2% of his fastballs. Among hitters who’ve seen at least 750 pitches this season, Lowe ranks second at 66.4%.
It’s a smart approach. Rowe has always struggled against fastballs, but he appeared to make progress against them in 2022 and 2023. But there’s too much incentive for pitchers not to capitalize on his fastball. Even when he does hit the ball, he doesn’t get extra base hits. His projected slugging percentage against fastballs this season is .332, which ranks 193rd out of 205 batters who have thrown at least 750 pitches.
More worryingly, Law has tried so hard to fix his fastball that he has lost his greatest strength against slower pitches. Coming into the year, he had a .331 career batting average against slower pitches, but is 1-for-21 against them this season. Teams have found he throws changeups and slower pitches about 12% of the time, a 33% increase over 2023.
Taveras: As a switch hitter, Taveras has more moving parts to maintain than other players, which can lead to mechanical issues. He’s never been effective against lefties, which is one reason the Rangers benched him against New York Mets lefty Sean Manaea on Wednesday, so this exercise will focus on lefties.
Taveras’ pitching style doesn’t change much from year to year. Pitchers like to attack him with pitches underneath and inside more than anything else. However, Taveras can fall into the habit of “squatting” too much against lefties, which makes him even more vulnerable to lefties. None of his metrics this year are particularly promising, but Taveras has not been able to protect himself against lefties with two strikes: he’s 1-for-21 (.048).
As for his fastball, last year he had a batting average of .300, an expected batting average of .319, and a slugging percentage of .530. This year he has a batting average of .233 and a slugging percentage of .400.
That’s not a good situation to be in, and it’s likely to continue unless the Rangers prove they can avoid throwing fastballs outside the zone or hit fastballs inside the zone.
twitter: Evan Grant
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