In 2024, the global commerce landscape will become a regulatory battleground, with multiple international organizations competing over their economic agendas.
The two main parties to the conflict are based in Paris for the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and New York for the United Nations. Each plan is poised to make 2024 a transformative year for global tax policy.
Businesses and policymakers need to respond immediately to three key policy shifts. A global minimum tax will be imposed for the first time, countries may sign treaties that redirect large corporations' taxes, and the United Nations will begin to develop its own approach to multinational tax policy.
The OECD has been at the forefront of negotiations to change the way multinational corporations are taxed for more than a decade, but the United Nations has recently entered the tax arena, albeit with an uncertain future. Last year, 125 members of the United Nations voted in favor of the Nigeria resolution of the International Framework Convention on Tax Cooperation. Most of the 48 countries that voted against it were developed countries in the OECD and the European Union.
The United Nations' current efforts are an echo of a complex global policy proposal that has been brewing for several years. The global minimum tax, first designed by the OECD in 2021, brings a new definition of taxable income and a tax rate of 15 percent. This policy is currently being adopted in Japan, South Korea, and dozens of European countries.
The US has introduced its own minimum tax since 2017, but that law and other parts of US tax policy are inconsistent with new global rules. Some U.S. lawmakers want to ignore the global minimum tax, but even if Congress doesn't act, it will have an impact on U.S. businesses.
The OECD is also planning changes to the way large companies are taxed, which could have a major impact. The current proposal would apply special rules to about 100 of the world's largest companies and would require the enforcement of tax treaties. Whether the United States will sign is an open question, as negotiators have expressed several red lines, including the need for other rules. The deal is set to collapse without US support, and it does not help the OECD that Brazil, Colombia and India have also not agreed to parts of the draft agreement.
Many are understandably concerned that the UN's efforts will duplicate work already being done at the OECD, but the approaches of the two organizations are markedly different. By design, the OECD must seek agreement among countries, a difficult and rigorous process that requires patience and significant compromises to reach agreement.
However, in the United Nations, each country has the right to vote, and the day is determined by majority vote. However, the UN's mandate is non-binding, so even if 100 countries vote to change global tax rules, countries that vote against the rules may ignore them.
The OECD's current priorities include completing all negotiations and holding a treaty signing ceremony this year, while the UN's tax policy agenda is also set to progress this year.
Understandably, many independent organizations have changed their approach to better prepare for the new globalized tax system. 43% of senior tax and finance leaders say complying with these new tax laws will be their biggest challenge this year, according to reports from organizations like Deloitte, and research organizations like ours, the Tax Foundation. plans to expand to Brussels in 2024.
Even in a globalized world, countries need flexibility to respond to domestic needs. This requires local sovereignty over tax rules. Striking the right balance between national sovereignty and multilateral cooperation is difficult, and the stage seems set for tax rules to become more globalized in 2024.
Daniel Bunn is president and CEO of the Tax Foundation, a nonpartisan tax research organization in Washington, DC.
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