It's already a trilogy.
The LA Clippers and Dallas Mavericks will meet for the third time in five postseason games in the first round of the NBA Playoffs. The series begins with Game 1 on Sunday in Los Angeles. Both rosters are very different from the 2020 and 2021 rosters for this matchup, with the Clippers winning six and seven games, respectively, but many key characters remain.
This game could be the most anticipated Opening Day matchup in the league, thanks to the sheer star power presence and ceiling of these teams as dark horse contenders. Tim Cato and Ro Murray cover the Mavericks and Clippers, respectively. The Athleticdiscuss the series.
Tim Cato: No, it's happening again. Law. It's going to be a match that goes on forever.
Let's start here: From your LA-based perspective, what was the Clippers' preferred matchup? How does Dallas rank among potential opponents?
Ro Murray: First of all, I am happy to be able to work with you all again. Even though the Mavericks fan base groaned remembering the first two series and the Clippers fan base did the same over Luka Doncic's hard play in those matchups.
Immediately after the All-Star break, the Clippers were in fourth place in the Western Conference and the Sacramento Kings were in fifth place. When the year started, I thought that's how the season would end, but I would have preferred the Kings because the Clippers' offense played well against Sacramento and they had better depth. think. However, the Kings were buried in the play-in tournament, and the Mavericks, who defeated the Kings twice in March, had a lot to do with that.
He said the Mavericks are a more ideal opponent for the Clippers compared to the Phoenix Suns and New Orleans Pelicans, who finished sixth and seventh in the West. That's not to declare that this series will be easy for the Clippers, quite the opposite. The Clippers have defeated the Suns three times with a full roster, but Phoenix has three premier scorers in Devin Booker, Bradley Beal and Kevin Durant. Dallas has a better backcourt than Phoenix, but the Mavericks have P.J. Washington at power forward. Similarly, the Mavericks have backcourt stars that the Pelicans don't, but New Orleans has forward scoring versatility in Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson, something the Clippers have struggled with over the years. Ta.
There's no focus like the motivation to avenge a loss in the playoffs, Doncic is creating more shots this time around, and there's a new head coach. It's going to be tough for the Clippers. But any matchup will be difficult. It's the playoffs.
Cato: Especially in this conference playoffs.
On a podcast a few weeks ago, I named the Clippers as the team outside of Denver that Dallas would least like to see. That was before the Mavericks finished the year with a blowout win and before the Clippers had any injury concerns. However, I still think the Minnesota Timberwolves, or perhaps the Oklahoma City Thunder, would have been preferred over Los Angeles due to certain matchup advantages.
For me, there are two reasons for that: 1) The Clippers have the best sustained play in the league outside of Denver this season, and 2) Kawhi Leonard has the best sustained play in the conference outside of Nikola Jokic. He is the player most likely to surpass Doncic.
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With that in mind, what's the latest news on Leonard's health? Any other notable news regarding their roster?
Malay: It wouldn't be a Clippers postseason without the intangible factor of health rearing its ugly head. And Leonard's health is more uncertain than at any point this season, which is very concerning.
Leonard last played on March 31 against Charlotte, helping the Clippers win their first three straight games since the trade deadline. A few days later, before the team played in Sacramento, Leonard was sent home to receive treatment for pain related to his surgically repaired right knee. At the time, Clippers head coach Tyronn Lue expressed optimism that Leonard would return soon. However, team officials say the Clippers are in no rush to bring Leonard back and will likely have to win some games without him.
To the Clippers' credit, they won four straight, clinching a playoff berth, a division title, and home court advantage in the first round. (Incidentally, the Clippers would also have home court advantage in the NBA Finals if they played any team other than the Boston Celtics, that is, if they made it there.)
However, Leonard's situation remains unclear, which makes sense given how the team and players have handled injury transparency. Leonard has previously missed games related to discomfort in his right knee, which required him to leave the team in Week 2 of the 2022-23 NBA season for treatment. At that time, Leonard did not play again for 25 days. If he needs the same amount of time to prepare, it would obviously jeopardize his chances of being included in the start of the series.
Kawhi Leonard controls the ball while being guarded by Grant Williams. (Kevin Jairaj/USA Today)
The only other injury concern for the Clippers involves James Harden, who missed last month with shoulder and foot issues. However, Harden started Friday's game against the Utah Jazz, and the time off should prepare him for the postseason.
Minor roster notes: The Clippers waived guard Joshua Primo, who suffered an ankle injury earlier this month. With a roster spot open, they were able to sign power forward Kai Jones. He hasn't played a full season in the NBA since being released to the Charlotte Hornets, but he has athleticism that was largely absent from the Clippers' roster. At least he's one of Washington's former teammates. In a chess match like this, every bit of information comes in handy.
Cato: For Dallas, the team is fully healthy with one exception. Rookie center Derek Lively II has not played since the end of March. Lively's injury was a sprained right knee, which had tragic complications while he was sidelined. His mother, Kathy Drysdale, passed away last Friday after a 10-year battle with cancer.
Of course, the loss goes beyond basketball, but Lively rejoined the team last week. Mavericks coach Jason Kidd previously said the team hopes Lively will be ready to return to the court by the start of the postseason. He declined to provide an update after Sunday's season finale, but my understanding is that's still the plan. Whenever Lively returns, he hopes the basketball court can provide some solace to a 20-year-old who has already dealt with so much. I don't have a good transition to put here, so I'm going to go back to the basketball series ahead.
Dallas has had two previous series against the Clippers, but they have also faced them three times in the regular season. Here's a grand sweeping statement: None of these games do much in terms of previewing what's coming this weekend. How have the Clippers changed since 2021 and throughout this year?
Malay: The Mavericks saw the Clippers at their worst this season, then began a turnaround, and then reached the pinnacle of great basketball again. Dallas is looking at more or less the same Clippers roster. Perhaps it cannot necessarily be called an advantage. At the end of the day, if the Mavericks acquire the Clippers in December, it doesn't matter who is on Dallas' team. Leonard didn't lose a game in December.
But the addition of Harden is the biggest difference between the Clippers throughout this season and throughout the 2021 postseason. The Clippers struggled to retain Harden after he was traded to Philadelphia in Week 2 of the season, losing six straight. The worst of those losses was against Dallas, after the Clippers' 12-point lead was ruined by shoddy rotation decisions and Doncic's absolute avalanche in the second quarter.
When Harden was playing his best ball of the season, the Clippers had a 26-5 record and looked like the best team in the NBA. After Harden won the Grammys in February, his shot-making and defensive activity significantly decreased and he plateaued. But he's the third star the Clippers won't have in 2021, not counting Marcus Morris Sr. and Reggie Jackson in that role.
The Clippers are smaller at forward and aren't as deep overall as they were in 2021. PJ Tucker, in particular, is a significant downgrade from the impact Nicolas Batum had in 2021. But Harden's offense, like Norman Powell's, has been upgraded. About what LA went through three years ago. And with players like Terrence Mann and Russell Westbrook, the guard position has even more size and activity compared to 2021.
Cato: Dallas was also completely reformed. They will have to pass the postseason test, but this looks like the most talented roster of the Doncic era.
The easiest way to quantify the change in Dallas is that it's no longer live or die at 3. In 2021, the Mavericks won three of the four games in which they hit more 3s than Los Angeles, and lost two of the three games in which they hit fewer threes. . There has been a longstanding tendency for role players to make or break their own shots, determining the outcome.
Dallas won 23 of its final 30 games and shut down its starters in two meaningless finals games. Eight of those wins came when the team hit 12 or fewer threes, compared to the team's record of 2-10 in such games before the trade deadline. Ta. Washington and Daniel Gafford, two loan signings, bring ideal defensive physicality to the team's scheme. Dallas has also won games against aggressive teams, most notably against Denver.
That has changed. The offense led by Doncic and Kyrie Irving is intimidating, but it's nothing new compared to past iterations of this team, even if Doncic's co-stars are different. But Doncic's team has never before had this new physicality.
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Is there one main question or plot line to focus on from the opening minutes of Game 1?
Malay: In 2021, Tyronn Lue coined a mantra unique to the Mavericks: “Get in the Paint or Try to Die.” This was despite the Mavericks rolling out a lineup that featured either Maxi Kleber, Dwight Powell, Willie Cauley-Stein, or even Boban Marjanovic next to Kristaps Porzisis. The Clippers were told to get to the paint and the rim and make plays from there.
If this series takes place with Grant Williams and Richaun Holmes on the Mavericks' roster, it's clear that the Clippers will be successful. However, since March 10, Dallas has remained one of the NBA's top defenses, ranking first in rim protection and tied for sixth in points allowed in the paint. They don't have the same hard sell in their minds like they did at Christmas recently. But the Mavericks also didn't need to protect as much offensive talent as the Clippers.So we'll know early on if the Clippers are still around. Go paint or die.
Cato: Fortunately, Marjanovic was the white flag hidden in the biggest possible frame. But you're right. What this new Mavericks roster at least has is an identity it still has to stick to.
Doncic appears to have a personal vendetta against Ivica Zubac, the big man he ran off the court with in the 2021 series. Since the start of the 2020-21 season, Doncic has made 22 of 46 threes (48%) against Zubac, according to NBA matchup data. But this year, Lue's Clippers won't rely on small ball like they once did. Neither Lue nor Harden, who prefers to work with big men in the pick-and-roll, want that.
This push-pull strategic scale wrinkle is my main question. Certainly, you think about the possession if Doncic switches right on. The Clippers will definitely avoid that and plan to keep Zubac on the floor to compete with Dallas' big man duo. But if they fail, I think the Clippers will be smaller to their own strategic advantage, removing a non-shooting threat and leaving fewer players for Dallas' big men to be comfortable guarding. This is a game within a game, a delicate dance between both teams deciding which identity is best to assert.
You'll find out soon. Sunday isn't far away.
(Top photo: Tim Heitman/Getty Images)
