Some theories suggest that the global economy will finally pick up in 2024, buoyed by perhaps unexpected strength in the U.S. economy, cooling inflation, smoothing supply chains, and increasing global employment. At the same time, a potential combination of geopolitical challenges, including increased debt, conflict and climate change, threaten to cloud this positive outlook. And there are still gaps between countries in terms of economic resilience and recovery, and within countries, inequality persists, if not widens.
The differences driven by fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV) contexts are particularly striking, with the incidence of conflict incidents increasing by 40 percent since 2020, the highest number of incidents since World War II. Half of the world's poor live in FCV-affected countries, and this number is expected to rise to 60% by 2030, as conflicts now extend to an average of 20 years. In addition to the death, destruction and chaos they cause, conflict and fragility discourage investment and further reduce economic growth. A fifth of International Monetary Fund member countries are considered to be in fragile and conflict-sensitive situations (FCS), and 20 of the economies most vulnerable to climate change are also on the World Bank's FCS list. There is.
According to the latest Women, Peace and Security Index, “in 2022, approximately 600 million women, or 15% of the world's women, will live within 50 kilometers of an armed conflict, an increase from the level of the 1990s. These numbers don't lie, but they also don't necessarily tell the whole truth. And the truth is that women and girls are disproportionately affected economically, socially and politically by fragility and conflict. The effects are well documented. Data shows, for example, that women and girls are more likely to have their education disrupted, more vulnerable to gender-based violence, and more likely to become displaced or refugees.
Even in conflict-affected areas, women often face far greater economic hardship than men. Notably, six of the World Bank's 10 FCS countries are in the bottom quartile of the Economic Participation and Opportunity sub-index of the World Economic Forum's Global Gender Gap Index. This points to widening gender disparities and the increasing challenges women face in conflict situations. Similarly, the majority of FCV member states are at the bottom of the latest Women in Business and Law rankings published on 4 March. These impacts also further damage the economy. The World Bank estimates that gender-based violence costs some countries up to 3.7%. As gross domestic product (GDP) increases, a 1% increase in violence against women reduces economic activity by 9%.
role Women's concerns during conflict and recovery
However, opportunities for women's economic empowerment can also exist in conflict and recovery. Women experience these outcomes despite their critical role in economies during conflict, post-conflict reconstruction, and peacekeeping efforts.
Most of today's FCV economies are characterized by low female labor force participation rates. For example, the United Nations estimates that if the gender gap in female labor force participation in Yemen were closed in 2022, the country's GDP would increase by 27 percent. Because men make up the majority of combatants, wars have historically created opportunities for women to fill labor gaps, including in male-dominated fields. Wars, often coupled with devastating inflation, have made it more acceptable to find paid work, and importantly, as income generation changes the economic value and power of women in society. , this openness is likely to continue. For example, in the United States, during World War II, women worked in manufacturing and government, both in the military industry and beyond, with 19 million women entering the U.S. workforce during this period. Today, women continue to participate or re-enter the workforce at higher rates during conflict, including in the informal sector, and in more culturally non-traditional jobs. For example, Ukrainian women have joined the mining workforce, filling the void left by conscription after the Russian invasion.
Like most economies around the world, MSMEs dominate the market landscape in fragile and conflict-torn countries.
Although these small and medium-sized enterprises face additional constraints in starting up and operating, they are an important pathway to women's economic participation during conflict and on the road to recovery. A study in Syria estimated that the proportion of female entrepreneurs had increased from a low of 4.4 percent in 2009 to 22.4 percent by 2017. This includes women-owned and led businesses in the supply chain. These include areas such as logistics, information and communication technology, infrastructure and public works, all of which are essential to recovery.
Increasing the incomes of women workers and their businesses, especially in the formal economy, can reduce the constraints on domestic resource mobilization that come with declines in economic activity, investment, and government operations during times of conflict and instability. Increased participation of women in the economy during conflict and reconstruction increases consumption and income utilization (including through cash transfers and other social protection mechanisms), as women recirculate their income into family spending. ) may also increase.
How to reap the benefits of prosperity and peace with and for women
Gender inclusion cannot be an afterthought. Policy makers must address the immediate economic security and income needs of women in conflict while ensuring that they can contribute to and benefit from recovery, rebuilding and growth. yeah. This means providing context-specific and targeted social protection and addressing issues that undermine women's economic participation. This requires mitigating and responding to gender-based violence and improving the accessibility and affordability of care for children and older people. It also supports women entrepreneurs and women-led small and medium-sized enterprises, closes education and skills gaps, and limits career choices and workforce participation through conflict- and vulnerability-sensitive knowledge, design, and delivery mechanisms. It also means addressing social and cultural norms.
Depending on the type, level, and stage of FCV and the economic climate, certain FCV-specific interventions may also bring about changes in women's economic empowerment. These include enabling income, employment and entrepreneurship for women, for example by expanding opportunities in the gig and home-based economies and increasing safe and reliable transport to work and school. included. Policy makers should also take steps to improve access to education and training, taking into account the demand and portability of languages, skills and qualifications. In addition to addressing persistent institutional and policy barriers, women business owners and entrepreneurs need targeted support with more risk financing, know-how, market access and development.
This includes leveraging large-scale development, humanitarian assistance and procurement. For example, the United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS) purchased more than $1.8 billion in goods and services from suppliers around the world in 2022, with domestic spending accounting for 56% of that. In collaboration with the system-wide United Nations Gender-Responsive Procurement Initiative, UNOPS is beginning to pilot and scale up a program to train and prepare women business owners to successfully bid and bid. These women will be able to use the investment, experience and trust gained from working with UNOPS to win other public and private sector contracts and optimize supply chain opportunities.
Expanding digital inclusion can also transform women's financial inclusion and economic participation. This includes training women for information and communication technology jobs in the digital economy, such as the World Bank-Rockefeller Foundation's Click-On Kaduna project in Nigeria. Policy makers should prioritize increasing women's access to and use of digital tools and platforms, such as digital money and financial services, distance learning and government technology. Digital mechanisms can also serve as a useful aspect of larger efforts to strengthen women's participation and leadership. This is essential for conflict mitigation and lasting peacebuilding.
Only time, experience and data are accumulating evidence that expanding economic opportunities for women is inextricably linked to building inclusive and sustainable growth, peace and social progress. This International Women's Day, with the theme 'Investing in Women: Accelerating Progress', it is incumbent on all leaders, investors and policy makers to heed this call. Public and private sector actors would do well to invest in promoting prosperity and peace, and enabling increased economic participation of women.
Nicole Goldin is an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for the Global Economy.
References
Image: Women strike at an International Women's Day rally in Rome, Italy, on March 8, 2024, demanding an end to domestic and racist violence, war and the “macho” culture that permeates the country. Demonstrators participating.Reuters/Yara Nardi
