OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Johnny Hart to discuss the week's key economic data and events. First, a quick recap of what happened last week. The original story of a dovish Fed has been watered down by a combination of hawkish Fed statements from Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari suggesting that rate cuts may not be necessary in 2024, and red-hot policy. Ta. US non-farm payroll statistics for March. Overall, market participants continue to push the first rate cut scheduled for July down further with a 76% probability, leading to positioning and rethinking about the pace and amount of the upcoming federal funds rate cut cycle. Based on data obtained from the CME FedWatch Tool, he recently announced his June forecast immediately after his March 20th FOMC meeting.
Second, gold (XAU/USD) and WTI crude posted impressive gains last week with weekly returns of +4.3% and 4.2%, respectively, supported by the resurgence of stagflation risks and persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Did.
Next week's focus will be on the US consumer price index, ECB President Lagarde's press conference after the monetary policy decision (market participants will pay close attention to any signs of a change in stance on the timing of the ECB's first interest rate cut) (previously announced to be released in June), and finally on Friday, the first quarter results of major US banks/financial institutions will be announced. JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, BlackRock.
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