The Mavericks defeated the Clippers 4-2, winning a playoff series for the first time in two seasons. They will play a much easier series in terms of travel as they head to Oklahoma City for Game 1 against the Thunder on Tuesday. Similar to the 2011 matchup, the Mavericks have the advantage in experience. The Thunder are young, fun, and skilled, but their lack of size and shooting from their key players could be the rock that sinks their ship. Meanwhile, the Mavericks need to solve Luka Doncic's shooting woes and find a way to replace Maxi Kleber if they are to pull off an upset win.
Either way, this will be a competitive and grueling series that should provide both entertainment and discussion.
game line
This may seem obvious, but the Mavericks, who won the series and are even, have great value. Dallas is a great fit with Oklahoma City. They have a rim-rolling big who can punish Chet Holmgren, they have Kyrie Irving, who would be a mismatch for any player on the Thunder, and they have the Thunder's quintessential “mobile, strong power forward.” There is PJ Washington who plays the role of “. Lightning has been a struggle all year.
This series will be a lot of one-possession games. If the team has an advantage of 3 or more points on him, bring the other team to cover. There will probably be more threes and free throws, so a game total of 220 or less should be fine.
player props
Daniel Gafford and Derek Lively will likely dominate the player props. Not only are they a good matchup, but the absence of Maxi Kleber means they will each have to play nearly half the games. Kyrie Irving also has a big series coming up as Oklahoma City's premier defender Lou Dort takes on Luka Doncic.
For the Thunder, Josh Giddy and Chet Holmgren should make a lot of threes. The Mavericks' game plan is to beat them, and most of the shots they get open will be threes from either player. Jaylen Williams and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be a difficult matchup due to their length and size, so the points under should be good throughout.
game 1
Latest odds from DraftKings as of May 6th at 9pm CST.
- Mavericks +3.5
- Daniel Gafford 15.5 points + rebounds (-108)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Less than 28.5 points (-112)
- Kyrie Irving 24.5 points or more (-110)
- 218 points or more (-110)
Jason Kidd is 0-4 in his first game as head coach of the Mavericks. I don't know if that will be different this time around, but I think the Mavericks will either lose or Dallas will win in one possession. Kyrie Irving and Daniel Gafford will have big nights, and the scoring from role players on both teams will be a focus.
