A prime-time matchup between two teams likely to make the playoffs begins Thursday, with the Miami Heat (35-26, 6th in the East) facing the Dallas Mavericks (34-28, 8th in the West). (rank). The Heat defeated the Pistons at home, winning 118-110, but could not cover the 11.5 point difference as the favorites. Dallas lost at home to the Pacers, 137-120, as a 5.5-point favorite to win the championship. This is the first of two matchups between these teams this season. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30 a.m. ET from the American Airlines Center in Dallas and will be available on TNT.
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Heat wins with 7 of 8
The Miami Heat have won seven of their last eight games and are playing the best basketball in the Eastern Conference. Their only loss was against the defending champion Denver Nuggets. They have outperformed expectations in this period as they were underdogs with four wins, including wins against Milwaukee, Philadelphia, New Orleans, and Sacramento. Jimmy Butler led the way in the most recent game, scoring 26 points against Detroit.
Duncan's bag gets deeper and deeper 🎒 pic.twitter.com/qTiYtZ5Ohl
— Miami Heat (@MiamiHEAT) March 6, 2024
Butler is the Heat's leading scorer with 21.9 ppg and leads the team in assists from the small forward position with 4.8 per game. Butler has been on a roll lately, scoring 20 or more points in each of his past five games, including 37 points in the win over Utah. Tyler Herro is the team's second leading scorer but has missed the last few games with a knee injury. Bam Adebayo is averaging a double-double inside with 20.4 PPG and 10.3 RPG. Duncan Robinson was the team's top shooter, making 2.8 threes per game on 40.6% shooting from deep and adding 13.3 PPG. Terry Rozier comes over from the Hornets and is averaging 13.9 PPG in 14 games with the team.
Against the Pistons, Nikola Jovic was the starter. He's a 20-year-old project averaging 6.1 PPG and 4.1 RPG on the year. Caleb Martin and Jaime Jaquez Jr. have spent the most time off the bench in recent games. Miami ranks him 20th in offensive efficiency and eighth in defensive efficiency, according to dunksandthrees.com. The Heat play at a slow pace, and he's only 28th in the league in pace of play.
Reporting an injury:
Out: Josh Richardson
Questionable: Tyler Herro, Patti Mills, Kevin Love
Triple double in case of loss
The frustration was visible from Luka Doncic as the All-Star gave his all against the Pacers. Doncic had 39 points, 11 assists and 10 rebounds, but lost by 17 points on his home floor. Doncic has scored 37 points or more in each of his last three games, achieving a triple-double, but all of them were losses. The Mavericks have lost five of their last six games despite no injuries to the team. Doncic had a big game against Indiana, with Kyrie Irving adding 23 points, but the defense allowed 137 points in the loss.
Magician at work🪄 pic.twitter.com/4jMUuenTE0
— Dallas Mavericks (@dallasmavs) March 6, 2024
Doncic is the NBA's leading scorer with 34.6 ppg and has scored 30 or more points in each of his eight games since the All-Star break. He also leads the team with 9.8 assists and 9.0 rebounds per game. Doncic has been playing as well as he can lately, with each of his last three triple-doubles shooting over 50 percent from the field. Kyrie Irving added points, scoring 25.7 PPG and 5.1 APG. Irving has scored 19 points or more in each of his past 10 games. Tim Hardaway Jr. is the team's third leading scorer, but he came off the bench to lead the second unit with 16.3 PPG. P.J. Washington is the only other double-digit scorer, averaging 12.4 PPG in his only 10 games with the team.
Against the Pacers, they started Derrick Lively II inside and Josh Green as the wing shooter. Lively and Green are averaging just 8.8 PPG. Dallas ranks 6th in offensive efficiency and 24th in defensive efficiency. They currently play at the ninth-fastest pace in the NBA.
Injury Report: Not listed
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Insider status:
evaluation:
These teams are trending in the opposite direction, and those trends will hold true for at least one more night. Miami has won seven of its last eight games, including four outright wins as an underdog. Dallas, on the other hand, has lost five of its last six games, three of them outright as a championship favorite. Luka Doncic has been playing at an incredible level lately, but he hasn't gotten enough help from his teammates and the Mavericks can't stop anyone from scoring. Dallas has given up 137 points to Indiana and 138 points to Boston in just two of their last three games. Their defensive efficiency ranks him only 24th in the league, and the backcourt of Doncic and Irving is good at producing buckets but not great at making stops. If this game comes closer, Miami has the option of bringing in Jimmy Butler for Doncic to slow his production. Miami has covered in nine of the last 11 games, so there's no reason to fade here.
Take Miami to cover.
Prediction: The cover gets hot.
full game total pick
Insider status:
evaluation:
The Mavericks' recent struggles can be attributed to their defense. Luka is putting up Hall of Fame numbers, and Kyrie is right behind him, still averaging 25 points per game. The problem is when stopping. They have given up more than 120 points in each of their last six games, and their 24th-ranked defense will likely once again give up a ton of points against a Heat team full of shooters. Miami has outscored that total in each of its past two games. Dallas has his fifth-fastest defensive possessions in the league. This means opposing offenses can find good form early in the shot clock, creating more possession in the game. Dallas plays at the ninth-fastest tempo and can push the pace with Doncic and Irving in the backcourt. Dallas has come from behind in four of the last five games, and that trend will continue here.
Please take over.
Prediction: End
