WASHINGTON (December 13, 2023) – NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun says the housing market is expected to grow with 4.71 million existing homes sold, making Austin, Texas a place to watch in 2024 and beyond. We predict that it will become the top of the real estate market. Yun yesterday announced the association's forecasts at NAR's fifth annual year-end. Real Estate Forecast Summit: The Year Ahead.
Yun predicts that next year's home sales will begin to increase by 13.5% compared to 2023, and the median home price will reach $389,500, up 0.9% from this year.
“Metro markets in southern states are likely to outperform other states as job growth accelerates, while markets in the Midwest benefit from being in the most affordable regions. Let’s go.”
Yun expects that rent prices will further stabilize in 2024, which will keep the consumer price index subdued. He expects foreclosure rates to remain at historically low levels in 2024, accounting for less than 1% of total mortgage loans.
Yun said the U.S. GDP will grow by 1.5%, recession will be avoided, and net new jobs will slow to 1.7 million in 2024, compared to 2.7 million in 2023 and 4.8 million in 2022. I predict that will happen. After exceeding 8% in late 2023, he said, 30-year fixed mortgage rates will average 6.3%, and in response to the slowdown in economic activity, the Fed will cut rates four times to calm inflation conditions. We are planning to do so.
Yun also forecasts 1.48 million housing starts in 2024, including 1.04 million single-family homes and 440,000 multi-family homes.
Top 10 real estate markets with the highest pent-up housing demand in 2024
NAR has identified the 10 real estate markets with the most pent-up housing demand and expects them to outperform other metropolitan areas in 2024. The markets are shown in the following order:
- Austin – Round Rock – Georgetown, Texas
- Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas
- Dayton Kettering, Ohio
- Durham, North Carolina – Chapel Hill
- Harrisburg Carlisle, Pennsylvania
- Houston – The Woodlands – Sugar Land, Texas
- Nashville, TN – Davidson – Murfreesboro – Franklin
- Philadelphia – Camden – Wilmington, Pennsylvania – New Jersey – Delaware – Maryland
- Portland – South Portland, Maine
- Washington – Arlington – Alexandria, DC – Virginia – Maryland – West Virginia
“Housing demand will recover with lower mortgage rates and rising incomes,” Yun said. “Additionally, home inventory is expected to increase by approximately 30% as more sellers begin listing after slowing sales for the past two years. Your recovery will be faster.”
NAR has selected the top 10 real estate markets with the highest pent-up housing demand in 2024 based on comparisons with the national level on the following economic indicators: 1) More “repeat” buyers. 2) Suppress the rise in housing prices. 3) More renters will be able to afford median-priced housing. 4) More potential sellers. 5) Significant decline in remote workforce. 6) More affordable listings for first-time buyers. 7) Stronger employment growth. 8) Income growth will accelerate. 9) Most high-income millennials are moving to this area. 10) Lower violent crime rates.
To view NAR Markets with the highest pent-up housing demand For the report, visit nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/research-reports/markets-with-the-most-pent-up-housing-demand. This and all Forecast Summit materials, including video recordings and Yoon's presentation slides, are available at nar.realtor/events/nar-real-estate-forecast-summit.
About the National Association of Realtors®
The National Association of Realtors® is the nation's largest trade association, representing more than 1.5 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries. The term Realtor® is a registered association membership mark that identifies real estate professionals who are members of the National Association of Realtors® and adhere to its strict code of ethics.
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