Dallas, Texas – February 10: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 of the Oklahoma City Thunder is defended. … [+]
Tonight, Oklahoma City Thunder fans are expected to flood Paycom Center for the second series against the Dallas Mavericks. The Thunder, the youngest team in NBA history to win a playoff series, will play the second round of the series in front of their home crowd in OKC for the first time since 2016.
This will be the Thunder's third home game of the playoffs, considering Oklahoma City defeated the New Orleans Pelicans in the opening game. It will be important for this young team to get off to a strong start in this series, as the Mavericks have star players who can take advantage of their lack of experience.
These teams have met four times this season, with OKC winning three of them, but these contests don't provide much context as to how these two teams will match up in this series. First, Dallas has a completely different rotation from the first two games of the season following two trades at the deadline.
Additionally, one of the two games after these acquisitions took place on the final day of the regular season, when the Mavericks acquired nearly all of their rotation pieces. Dallas defeated the Thunder by 35 points in a game with both teams mostly healthy, but it was an unconventional game as it was the first game after the NBA All-Star break.
As such, there is a lot of uncertainty as the Thunder and Mavericks begin a seven-game series. Still, there are still things you can predict based on team trends and how individual players have fared against other contenders from the end of the regular season into the playoffs.
As this series unfolds, what are the key factors that could make the difference in who ultimately comes out on top?
Luka Doncic's health status
Luka Doncic was playing through a knee injury during the Mavericks' first-round series against the LA Clippers. Although he was able to qualify in all six of his contests, he did not look like himself. Doncic averaged 29.8 points per game, but shot just 40.5 percent from the floor and 23.9 percent from beyond the arc.
Fortunately, Kyrie Irving took over in that series and was able to score 26.5 points per contest very efficiently with splits of 51.4/44.9/85.2. Doncic's health and knee condition will play a key role in this Game 2 series against the Thunder. If Irving maintains his level of play and returns to his original scoring efficiency, this could be a long series for the Thunder defense.
center rotation
Unlike the opener against the Pelicans in Oklahoma City, the Mavericks have quite a few options at center. New Orleans was essentially limited to playing big with Jonas Valanciunas or small with Larry Nance Jr. at this position throughout the series. Dallas will be without Maxi Kleber due to injury, but the Mavericks have a dynamic rotation featuring Dwight Powell, Daniel Gafford, and Derek Lively II.
If for some reason a traditional center doesn't work in this matchup, or if the Mavs need to change the flow of the game, don't be surprised to see a fair amount of P.J. Washington at center in small-ball lineups. please. Additionally, Markieff Morris is not in the regular rotation, but is another option for Mavericks coach Jason Kidd to work with.
For Oklahoma City, Chet Holmgren will play an important role as the primary center, but the team will also need to be strategic about who plays in that spot next to or behind him. Jaylin Williams proved to be a quality contributor in the opener with his size, physicality, and floor space, but he didn't play much in this matchup against Dallas vs. New Orleans. Kenrich Williams could be called up. Thunder manager Mark Daigneault has also selected Mike Muscala and Bismack Biyombo as center candidates off the bench.
Pick and roll success
Like many of the NBA's best teams, both of these teams have elements that work effectively in pick-and-roll scenarios on the offensive end. Whether it's Doncic or Irving with the ball in their hands, Lively and Gafford are both solid screeners and vertical spacers who pose lob threats. Oklahoma City's ability to defend the pick-and-roll and fight across screens will be crucial in this series. Thunder not only has to protect the roller, but also the guard initiator.
On the other side of the floor, the Thunder have had success with both Chet Holmgren and Isiah Joe as pick-and-roll screeners. Both are effective with pop rather than rolling, allowing defenses to focus on the handler (usually Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Jaylen Williams) or a quality 3-point shooter getting open looks on the perimeter. You can either do it like this. The effectiveness Holmgren showed after screening guards was a big reason the Pelicans had to go small at center in the first round.
The winner of this series will face either the Denver Nuggets or Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference Finals, depending on who wins the series. In the meantime, this Thunder vs. Mavericks series is expected to be one of the most entertaining series in the entire league over the next two weeks.
