A new report says the heat will continue in Texas and other extreme weather events such as droughts, wildfires and heavy rains will worsen.
The report, written by the state's climatologists, uses historical data to predict weather patterns through 2036. This report updates the findings published in 2021 by incorporating data from the past two and a half years to further refine the forecast.
John Nielsen Gammon, state climatologist and author of the report, pointed to the record-breaking heat that has hit Texas over the past two summers.
“I wondered if these trends were going to continue, and they have,” he says.
The report predicts that, on average, temperatures in Texas will be 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit warmer by 2036 than temperatures from 1991 to 2020. It doesn't seem like much, but it's enough to exacerbate several types of extreme weather events, including wildfires, 100-degree days, and extreme rain.
Rising temperatures will create dry conditions and increase the risk of wildfires if rain does not occur as often. The researchers predicted that this would likely lengthen the spring and summer wildfire seasons, as high temperatures arrive earlier this year and last longer.
Multiple wildfires scorching the Texas Panhandle have combined to create the “largest and most destructive” fire in the state's history.
The geographic reach of the wildfire season is also expected to expand into East Texas, as Texas is likely to become hotter and drier.
Rising temperatures will increase the frequency of extreme rainfall, the report says. Each period of warming increases the amount of moisture from clouds by about 4%, which is thought to contribute to increased precipitation. The authors noted that rainfall patterns vary by state, and heavy rain may not increase evenly in Texas.
As expected, rising average temperatures could lead to more days above 100 degrees in Texas. Over the past 50 years, the number of days with temperatures above 100 degrees has tripled in three out of four Texas regions. By 2036, that number is expected to quadruple.
The report also looked at several other types of extreme weather events, including floods, droughts, and hurricanes. Although river flooding is expected to remain approximately constant, urban flooding is likely to increase as heavy rainfall increases. Hurricanes are also predicted to cause even greater storm surges in areas where sea level rise is most pronounced.
The report's drought predictions were not conclusive. While some signs, such as fluctuating rainfall and rising temperatures, suggest the likelihood of drought is increasing, researchers say other factors make concrete predictions difficult. Stated.
The report was funded by Texas 2036, a nonpartisan public policy nonprofit named after the state's upcoming bicentennial. A poll conducted by the group in August showed that Texans are aware of these changes in weather patterns and are concerned about the impact of these trends on their finances.
“hoping [the report] It gives us a clear picture of what's going on,” Nielsen-Gammon said. “It's not as simple as saying 'all kinds of extreme weather events are on the rise' – some aren't, and some we don't know about. But we know what has happened so far and what will happen next. We hope that the amount we know about what is likely to happen will help us better assess the risks.”
