©Reuters
Investing.com — Investors will be watching data released during Friday's market holiday for the latest information on U.S. inflation. Several Fed officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell, are scheduled to speak, and their comments will be closely watched following the Fed's dovish comments last week. Here's what you need to know to start your week.
- US data
The United States is scheduled to release its Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Fed's preferred measure of underlying inflation, when markets close on Good Friday.
The index, which excludes food and energy costs, is expected to rise again in February after posting its biggest monthly rise of the year in the previous month.
The Fed last week stuck to its forecast for three interest rate cuts this year despite upgrading its economic growth outlook, but added that officials want to see more evidence that inflation is slowing before it eases.
The economic calendar also includes data from , and weekly reports from .
- The Fed speaks
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Fed Directors Lisa Cook and Christopher Waller are scheduled to attend next week.
”[W]”We believe that Fed speakers are likely to take a more hawkish position in the coming weeks, especially regarding the long-term path of policy rates, which could be an important factor in the 10-year Treasury yield.” Stated. Macquarie analysts said in a recent note.
“Chairman Powell's 'dovish' tone was somewhat surprising to us, and perhaps contrary to what other Fed policymakers thought,” McCauley added, noting that the overnight index swap market has spiked four times. He warned that there was an 85% chance that a rate cut would be priced in. 2024.
But the latest summary of the Fed's economic outlook, showing that Powell's colleagues expect stronger economic growth, higher inflation and a modest increase in the Fed's long-term interest rates, shows that “other Fed officials According to McCauley, this can provide clues as to whether the person was thinking about the He paints a much less dovish outlook than the one announced by the Fed chief.
- stock
Last week was the biggest weekly increase since mid-December, rising 2.3%. The 2% increase was also the biggest weekly increase since mid-December, while the 2.9% increase was the biggest weekly increase since mid-January.
Some market watchers believe the market is poised for a pullback after the S&P 500 index rose 27% since late October.
But some expect the trend to continue as investors look beyond the big growth and tech stocks that have fueled the U.S. stock market's rally over the past year.
Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth, told Reuters the wider rally “means the leadership is less concentrated and more susceptible to corrections.”
With the end of the first quarter nearing, there could be more volatility as fund managers adjust their portfolios.
- crude oil price
Oil prices edged lower on Friday, ending the week little changed as war in Europe and lower US rig counts offset losses, coupled with a possible ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.
A possible ceasefire could allow Yemen's Houthi rebels to allow oil tankers to pass through the Red Sea.
The dollar's strength was also weighed down by the dollar's second consecutive week of gains as global risk sentiment increased following Thursday's surprise interest rate cut by the Swiss National Bank.
A strong dollar will raise oil prices for investors holding other currencies, reducing demand.
“Risk appetite broadly widens following midweek Fed comments that turned out to be less hawkish than expected,” Jim Ritterbusch of Houston-based Ritterbusch & Associates told Reuters. “Given the acceleration, we are still at new highs.”
- global inflation
Reserve Bank of Australia officials will be watching Wednesday's inflation report for any upside as February's data will capture more of the price changes for a range of services, but prices will fall more quickly than goods. slow.
The figures could confirm that the RBA needs to wait a little longer before cutting interest rates in response to the economic slowdown.
Economists expect annual inflation to rise in February from 3.4% in January.
In Japan, Tokyo is scheduled to release the data on Friday, but it may be greeted with less excitement after the Bank of Japan finally raised interest rates last week for the first time in 17 years.
(Contributed by Reuters)
